US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday 3 November 2026 that the United States will stop its roughly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel by the end of this year. He said he had agreed this with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The same day, Americans voted in mid-term elections, and Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate. On Wednesday Vice President JD Vance blamed the Republican losses on the Iran war, and oil fell sharply on bets that Washington will now look for a way out of the conflict. Brent is at $97.72 on our MT5 feed, −15.35% over five days.
What happened
Four days have changed the picture for Israel, Iran and oil. These are the main events, with claims marked as claims:
Oil prices fell as Qatari mediators carried messages between Iran and the United States. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had given his government new powers to negotiate, and Trump hinted at progress in the talks.
In a phone interview, Trump said the US will stop paying military aid to Israel. "By the end of this year, we won't be paying Israel," he said, adding that Israel no longer needs the money and that Netanyahu had raised the idea himself.
Israeli opposition leaders, including Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot and Democrats leader Yair Golan, attacked Netanyahu over the announcement. The Prime Minister's Office gave no immediate comment.
The first US polling stations closed. By Wednesday, Democrats had won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Vice President JD Vance blamed the Republican losses on the Iran war. Oil prices plunged, and Brent fell to its lowest level in nearly a month, while US stock indices rallied.
What the aid announcement means for Israel
US military aid to Israel runs under a 10-year agreement signed in 2016. It gives Israel $3.8 billion a year: $3.3 billion in military financing and $500 million for missile defence. Most of the money must be spent on US-made weapons. The agreement runs until the end of September 2028.
That is why Trump's date of the end of 2026 is not yet clear. No formal US or Israeli document on an early end has been published, and Congress, not only the president, decides on the money. Netanyahu has spoken in the past of phasing out US military aid, but gradually and over several years.
If the aid does stop early, Israel would have to pay for these weapons from its own budget, at a time when long wars have already pushed its defence spending sharply higher.
Why it matters for traders
The US and Israel launched the war on Iran on 28 February 2026. Since then, the risk to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has kept a large war premium in oil. The US election result changed the bet. Markets now see a Democratic Congress, and a White House that openly links its losses to the war, as more likely to choose talks over new strikes.
That is why oil fell hardest. Lower oil means less pressure on inflation, which helped stocks. The new Congress takes office in January 2027 and will control war funding and aid to Israel, but Trump keeps his powers over defence and foreign policy, so a sudden escalation is still possible.
Oil, gold and stocks on our feed
Brent (UKOIL) is at $97.72 on our MT5 feed: −9.19% over 24 hours and −15.35% over five days, after a five-day high of $115.47 and a low of $96.93. US crude (USOIL) is at $87.69, −9.44% over 24 hours.
Gold moved +2.86% over 24 hours to $4,122.11, and silver (XAGUSD) moved +2.19% to $52.62. The S&P 500 (US500) moved +1.73%.
Brent, gold and the S&P 500 side by side over the same five days:
Scenarios
- Talks move forward: if the Qatar-mediated contacts between Iran and the US lead to a deal that reopens normal shipping through Hormuz, markets may take more of the war premium out of oil.
- Stalemate: if talks drag on without a deal and without new strikes, oil may stay volatile inside its recent range, moving on every headline.
- Escalation: if the US or Israel strikes Iran again, or Iran hits shipping or Gulf targets, oil may jump back quickly and gold could gain as a safe haven.
What to watch next
- Iran–US messages through Qatar: any sign of a deal, or of talks breaking down.
- Netanyahu's answer on the aid announcement, and any formal US step to change the 2016 agreement.
- Israel's coalition talks after the 27 October election: Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot are both trying to reach a 61-seat majority, and President Isaac Herzog must choose who gets the first chance to form a government.
- Statements from Trump and Vance on the Iran war after the election defeat.
- The new US Congress takes office in January 2027 and will decide on war funding and aid.
Trading oil and gold at TNFX
Brent (UKOIL), WTI (USOIL), gold (XAUUSD), silver (XAGUSD) and the S&P 500 (US500) are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around news like this spreads can widen and prices can jump in seconds, so use stop-losses and size positions for the risk.
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Common questions
Is the US ending military aid to Israel?
President Trump said on 3 November 2026 that the US will stop its military aid to Israel by the end of 2026, under a deal he says he made with Netanyahu. The current US–Israel aid agreement runs until September 2028, and no formal document on an early end has been published.
How much military aid does the US give Israel?
Under the 2016 agreement, $3.8 billion a year: $3.3 billion in military financing and $500 million for missile defence. Most of it must be spent on US-made weapons.
Why did oil prices fall after the US midterm elections?
Democrats won both chambers of Congress and Vice President JD Vance blamed the Republican losses on the Iran war. Markets read this as a sign that Washington is more likely to seek a deal with Iran than to escalate, which reduces the risk to Gulf oil supply.
What is the Brent oil price now?
On the TNFX MT5 feed Brent is at $97.72, −9.19% over 24 hours and −15.35% over five days.
Who will form Israel's next government?
It is not decided yet. After the 27 October 2026 election, Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot are both trying to build a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset, and President Isaac Herzog will choose who gets the first mandate.
Could the Iran war start again?
Yes, it is possible. Talks through Qatar are continuing, but no deal has been signed, and Trump keeps full powers over defence and foreign policy. A new strike would most likely push oil higher again.