The US-Iran war is back at the centre of the markets after Tuesday's US midterm elections. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate on 3 November, and President Donald Trump acknowledged that the war played a role in his party's defeat. On the night before the vote, the United States carried out what a US official called "defensive" strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Qatar says Washington and Tehran are both reviewing proposals to end the war. Oil swung in a volatile session on Wednesday and Brent is at $104.20 on our MT5 feed (−2.69% in 24 hours), while gold moved +2.33% and silver +3.62% as the dollar weakened.
What happened
The war between Iran and the United States and Israel began on 28 February 2026. Fears had grown that fighting could flare up again after the US vote. These are the key events of the last three days:
The United States strikes Iran's Qeshm Island. A US official says the "defensive" strikes targeted surface-to-air missiles used against US assets. Another official says the strikes appeared limited and did not signal a return to major combat operations.
Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, says the United States and Iran are both reviewing proposals from the mediators and that talks continue. "As a mediator, we cannot lose hope," he says.
President Trump says the United States has no immediate plans to strike Iran, but adds: "We're locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it." He says indirect talks on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile are ongoing.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, says the US response to Iran's demands "was not convincing" and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen only if Washington meets Iran's seven conditions. A senior Iranian official says the demands include waiving oil sanctions, ending the US naval blockade and releasing frozen Iranian funds.
Democrats win control of both chambers of the US Congress. Trump acknowledges that the Iran war played a role in the result.
Oil rises early in Asia, then turns lower in a volatile session. Gold and silver climb as the dollar falls to a one-month low.
Why the election matters for the war trade
A Congress controlled by Democrats could add political pressure on the White House over the war. For oil, the question is simple: does the new balance in Washington make a deal with Iran more likely, or does it change nothing on the ground in the Gulf?
So far, markets are getting mixed signals. Strikes continued on the eve of the vote, while the President played down further escalation. A senior Iranian official says the two sides are still far from a deal, and Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, says the ball is in Washington's court. This mix of talks and threats is why oil has swung in both directions.
Oil on our feed
Brent (UKOIL) is at $104.20 on our MT5 feed: −2.69% in 24 hours and −11.31% over five days, in a range between $104.16 and $118.80. US crude (USOIL) is at $93.73 (−2.53% in 24 hours). Oil had already fallen on Monday and Tuesday as hopes for the Qatar-led talks grew.
Supply news pulls the other way. Industry data showed US crude stocks fell by about 5.3 million barrels in the week to 30 October, against expectations of a small rise. The official figures from the US Energy Information Administration are due today at 18:30 Mecca time.
Gold, silver and the dollar
Precious metals reacted more to the election than to the war. Gold (XAUUSD) is at $4,044.29, +2.33% in 24 hours, and silver (XAGUSD) is at $52.01 (+3.62%). The dollar fell to a one-month low after the Democratic win, and the US Dollar Index moved −0.47% on our feed. US stocks also moved: the Dow Jones (DJ30) changed +2.23%.
Brent, WTI, gold and silver side by side over the same five days:
Scenarios
- Deal progress: if Washington and Tehran accept a version of the mediators' draft, or Iran signals that Hormuz can reopen, markets may take more of the war premium out of oil.
- Talks drag on: if messages keep moving through Qatar without a breakthrough and strikes stay limited, oil may keep swinging inside its recent range on each headline.
- Renewed escalation: if the United States or Israel launch a new wave of strikes, or Iran answers as its officials have threatened, oil may jump and gold may find more safe-haven demand.
What to watch next
- Today, 18:30 Mecca time: weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration.
- Answers from Washington and Tehran on the mediators' proposals, and any new statement from Qatar.
- Iran's seven conditions: any sign that the United States will address sanctions, the naval blockade or frozen funds.
- New strikes: any US or Israeli military action, and Iran's response in the Gulf.
- The dollar: the next US jobs report and the Federal Reserve's reading of the election result.
Trading oil, gold and silver at TNFX
Brent (UKOIL), WTI (USOIL), gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around war and election headlines spreads can widen and prices can move fast, so use stop-losses and size positions for the risk.
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Common questions
Why did oil prices fall after the US midterm elections?
Oil swung in a volatile session on Wednesday 4 November. Traders are weighing whether the Democratic win in Congress will push Washington towards a deal with Iran, while Qatar says both sides are reviewing proposals to end the war.
Did the US strike Iran before the election?
Yes. On the night of Monday 2 November the United States struck Iran's Qeshm Island. A US official called the strikes "defensive" and said they targeted surface-to-air missiles; another said they appeared limited.
Is there a peace deal between the US and Iran?
Not yet. Qatar says both sides are reviewing proposals, but a senior Iranian official says they are still far apart, and Iran says the US response to its seven conditions was not convincing.
What does Iran want to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Iranian officials say their demands include waiving oil sanctions, ending the US naval blockade and releasing frozen Iranian funds. Iran says Hormuz will reopen only if its conditions are met.
Why is gold rising today?
Gold climbed as the dollar fell to a one-month low after Democrats won control of Congress. On our MT5 feed gold is at $4,044.29 (+2.33% in 24 hours).
What is the Brent oil price now?
On the TNFX MT5 feed Brent is at $104.20, −2.69% in 24 hours and −11.31% over five days.
When can oil move next?
Today at 18:30 Mecca time with US crude inventory data, then on any answer from Washington or Tehran to the mediators' proposals, or any new strike.