2Solid≈ 20%
- IfJobs 110–150k
- andUnemployment 4.1%
Then
Gold▼ 0.5–1%
US dollar▲ firmer
US stocksFlat to soft
August was real. Watch wages: +0.4% turns this into scenario 1.
The US October jobs report has been published. The headline payrolls, the unemployment rate and wages are in the live board above, alongside gold's first move on our MT5 feed and the scenario that played out. We update this page as the revisions and the market's verdict come in.
The six scenarios
Odds are our reading of the forecast distribution, not a market price. Reactions are the typical first hour; the mixed cases are where the first move reverses.
1Hot≈ 15–20%
- IfJobs ≥ 150k
- andUnemployment ≤ 4.0%
Then
Gold▼ 1–2% fast
US dollar▲ broad rally, USD/JPY up
US stocks▼ growth stocks hit
October cemented, December in play. Yields lead; gold's worst case.
3In line≈ 30%
- IfJobs 70–110k
- andUnemployment 4.1%
- andWages +0.3%
Then
GoldWhipsaw, then flat
US dollarLittle changed
US stocksRelief drift up
Nothing to change the Fed's mind. The first spike fades; revisions decide the afternoon.
4Soft≈ 20%
- IfJobs 35–70k
- andUnemployment 4.2%
Then
Gold▲ 1–2% relief
US dollar▼ slips
US stocks▲ rally
Bank of America's case (+60k); KPMG and Crédit Agricole reach it through 4.2% unemployment. December pricing trimmed; October probably survives.
5Weak≈ 5–10%
- IfJobs below 35k or negative
- andUnemployment ≥ 4.3%
Then
Gold▲ 2%+ spike
US dollar▼ sells off hard
US stocks▲ then doubt
The first real challenge to the hiking cycle. Not priced; liquidity thins, spreads widen.
6Mixed≈ 10%
- IfStrong jobs with unemployment up
- orweak jobs with unemployment down
Then
GoldFirst move reverses
US dollarChoppy
US stocksChoppy
The trap. Read wages and participation before believing the headline; the settle comes late.
Every what-if: jobs × unemployment
Because two numbers land at once, this grid covers every combination. Rows are the payroll number, columns the unemployment rate; each cell is gold's likely first hour.
| Jobs ↓ Unemployment → | ▼ 4.0% or lower | = 4.1% (steady) | ▲ 4.2% or higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot ≥150k | ▼▼October and December both priced; gold's worst cell | ▼Solid beat; dollar firmer | ▼ then ▲Mixed: strong hiring but more slack — first move reverses |
| Solid 110–150k | ▼Firm beat; October cemented | ▼Solid beat; dollar firmer | ▼ then ▲Mixed: good hiring but more slack — first move reverses |
| In line 70–110k | ▼Slightly hawkish; mild pressure | ≈Whipsaw then flat; wages decide | ▲Mild relief; slack building |
| Soft 35–70k | ≈Mixed: weak hiring but tight market — wages decide | ▲Relief rally; December trimmed | ▲▲Clear cooling; the rally gold has waited for |
| Negative below 35k or <0 | ▲Odd pairing — participation dropped; still gold-positive | ▲▲Hiking cycle questioned | ▲▲▲October hike in doubt; the biggest gold move on the board |
One more variable sits outside the grid: revisions. A sharp downward revision to the prior two months — August's +133k and September's +29k — can turn even a strong headline into a soft report, and the reverse if they are revised up.
The numbers — live
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published at 16:30 Mecca time (08:30 New York). The board shows the actual numbers against the forecast and the previous month, and which of our scenarios played out.
Payrolls (new jobs)+165k · forecast +65k · previous +29k — BEAT
Unemployment rate4.1% · forecast 4.2% — lower than expected
Wages (avg. hourly earnings, m/m)+0.4% · forecast +0.3%
Which scenario happened✔ THIS HAPPENED Solid: above consensus, unemployment steady
In one lineAuto-published from BLS data at the release.
Which scenario happened
Scenario 4 — Soft. Payrolls missed the forecast by 61,000 and unemployment rose to exactly that card's 4.2%. At +29k, jobs sit just under the card's 35k line, so the report borders on Scenario 5 (Weak) — and the −60,000 revisions and +0.1% wages lean that way — but the market's reaction matched Soft: gold's spike topped out at about 1% (not the 2%+ of Weak) and faded to +0.2% within the hour, the dollar slipped rather than selling off hard, and US stocks rose. Both cards point the same way: gold up, dollar down, stocks up.
How NFP moves gold
Gold is the market this report moves most, so it comes first. The live price is in the bar above; below, the week from our own feed and what each outcome usually does to it. Gold fell about 4% on 28 September to its lowest since August and sits ~26% under January's record — it is trading on Fed-hike odds, and this report sets them.
$4,147Week high
$3,870Week low
$4,065Last
Gold4,065▲ +2.23% 7 days
Hot print — jobs ≥150k, unemployment 4.0% or lower▼ 1–2% fastThe October hike is cemented and December comes into play; yields and the dollar jump. The biggest risk for gold on the day.
Solid beat — jobs 110–150k, unemployment 4.1%▼ 0.5–1%Confirms the August turn was real; dollar firmer. Gold usually gives back the pre-release bounce.
In line — jobs 70–110k, unemployment 4.1%Whipsaw, then flatBoth sides find something; the first spike often reverses inside the hour. Wages decide the direction.
Soft — jobs 35–70k, unemployment 4.2% (most likely)▲ 1–2% reliefTrims December pricing; the dollar slips. The relief rally gold has been waiting for since the Fed hike.
Weak — negative or near-zero jobs, unemployment 4.3%+▲ 2%+ spikeFirst real challenge to the hiking cycle; the October hike itself comes into question. Not priced.
How much gold moved on the last seven jobs reports
4 Sep$107 · −56
7 Aug$62 · +45
2 Jul$79 · +46
5 Jun$113 · −64
8 May$46 · +21
6 Mar$98 · +20
11 Feb$65 · −13
Why this report is different
It is the first jobs report since the Fed held rates at 3.75-4.00% on 28 October - the level set by the 16 September hike, the first since July 2023 - and the last major read on the labour market before the 9 December decision. Markets had priced a further 25 bp move at the October meeting at about 70-77%, but the Fed stood pat; 16 of the 18 officials still pencil in at least one more move this year (four see two). October's rebound keeps that path alive; only a clearly weak print could have slowed it.
September was the shock this time: +29,000 against a forecast near +90,000, a big miss, after August was revised to +133,000 and July to -10,000 - a net 60,000 taken off the prior two months. Today's +165,000 is the rebound, and the question is whether September was the anomaly or hiring is genuinely firming again. 2026 has been a whipsaw, and revisions to August and September can move markets as much as the headline.
Inflation is what the Fed is fighting: core PCE has been running near 3.3%, and the next CPI prints on 18 November. Gold trades around $4,070 and is priced off rate-move odds - this report is the latest input to them, and the 9 December decision is the next.
The labour supply is shrinking. Federal employment is down about 336,000 (-11%) since January 2025; work authorisation for Haitian TPS holders ended in July, and a Venezuelan cliff arrived in early October. Fewer available workers lower the “breakeven” payroll number, so a small headline can still be consistent with unemployment at 4.1% - which is where it printed. That is exactly why both numbers matter, not the headline alone, and why our scenarios are built on the pair.
The numbers to watch
Three prints land together at 16:30. The headline gets the first reaction; unemployment and wages decide whether it lasts.
| Forecast | Previous | Range / note | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-farm payrolls (new jobs, October) | +65k | +29k | +50k … +125k |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.2% | Several banks see 4.2%; 4.3% would be the highest since spring |
| Average hourly earnings, month on month | +0.3% | +0.1% | About 3.3% on the year — the inflation channel the Fed watches |
Where the big forecasters sit — note the spread from +50k to +120k. The consensus of +65k is a modest rebound from September's +29k, which makes the revisions and the unemployment rate decisive:
+65kFactSet median (24 est.) — unemployment 4.1%
+59kDow Jones consensus — wages +0.3% m/m
+65kBloomberg contributors — unemployment up to 4.2%
+90kMUFG — unemployment 4.2%, wages +0.2%
+120kVanguard — payback for August's seasonals
+86kADP private (already out) — the low end of the street
The timeline (Mecca time, GMT+3)
16:30 — The report
Payrolls, the unemployment rate and wages publish at once. On our feed the release minute alone has moved gold $12 to $81; spreads widen for a few minutes at every broker.
16:30–16:35 — The first move
Headline-driven and often wrong. On 4 September gold dropped 2% on the +162k print, then recovered a third of it within the hour. Do not chase the first candle.
17:30 — The settle
By an hour in, wages, revisions and the unemployment rate have been read. This is the move our 60-minute numbers measure, and the one that usually holds into New York.
Next — 18 November CPI, 9 December Fed decision
Friday sets the tone; the CPI print can move the odds again; the Fed decides on 9 December. The November jobs report follows on 5 December.
How the Fed will read it
Chair Kevin Warsh has said he weighs the unemployment rate, weekly jobless claims, hours worked and job openings more than the headline payroll number - and that the Fed does not “need to do harm to the labor markets” to bring inflation down. That framed today's report: unemployment steady at 4.1% is close to breakeven for a shrinking workforce, while the strong +165k headline pulls the 9 December decision back into focus.
The Fed's own projections carry more tightening: a median end-2026 rate of 4.00-4.25%. A clearly weak report - negative payrolls, or unemployment jumping to 4.3% or more - would have reopened the question; today's strong print does the opposite, putting 9 December firmly on the table, the scenario gold fears most.
The record: how NFP moved gold and the dollar, release by release
Every jobs report since July 2025 — the number against the forecast, the unemployment rate, and what gold and the dollar did the same day. The pattern is consistent: misses lift gold and sink the dollar; beats do the opposite, but the size depends on what the Fed was about to do.
Every release since July 2025: payrolls against the forecast, and the unemployment rate
Actual (▲ BEAT / ▼ MISS)forecastUnemployment rate
| Release · data month | Payrolls vs forecast | Gold | US dollar | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 Sep 2026 | +29k forecast +90k | ▲ +1.0% (~+$41) at first, faded to +0.2% | ▼ DXY soft then firmer | 4.2% forecast 4.1% |
| Big miss: −61k vs +90k forecast. Jul −10k, Aug revised +133k (−60k net). | ||||
| 2026-09-04 Aug 2026 | +162k forecast +53k | ▼ −2% at first, pared to −1.2% | ▲ DXY +0.3%; 10-yr 4.78% | 4.1% forecast 4.1% |
| Biggest gain in 5 months; Jun/Jul revised +55k. Revived hike bets. | ||||
| 2026-08-07 Jul 2026 | −23k forecast +83k | ▲ +2.4% (~+$100), 7-week high | ▼ DXY −0.5%, 2-month low | 4.1% forecast 4.2% |
| First negative print; May/Jun revised −103k; participation 5-year low. | ||||
| 2026-07-02 Jun 2026 | +57k forecast +115k | ▲ +2.2% (~+$83), back above $4,100 | ▼ DXY −0.6%, bottom of G10 | 4.2% forecast 4.3% |
| Thursday release (4 July). Took 2026 hikes off the table — briefly. | ||||
| 2026-06-05 May 2026 | +172k forecast +80k | ▼ −3.3% (−$147), worst day since March | ▲ DXY +0.4%; 10-yr +5.5 bp | 4.3% forecast 4.3% |
| Mar/Apr revised +93k. Revived hike bets under Warsh. | ||||
| 2026-05-08 Apr 2026 | +115k forecast +55k | ▲ +0.7% — a “goldilocks” print | ▼ dollar softer despite the beat | 4.3% forecast 4.3% |
| Wage miss (+0.2% m/m) offset the headline. | ||||
| 2026-04-03 Mar 2026 | +178k forecast +59k | — markets closed (Good Friday) | — thin holiday trading | 4.3% forecast 4.4% |
| 76k of the gain was health care; cemented the Fed on hold. | ||||
| 2026-03-06 Feb 2026 | −92k forecast +59k | ▲ +1.4% spot; futures settled +1.6% | ▼ DXY −0.4% | 4.4% forecast 4.3% |
| Heavy private-sector losses; Dec/Jan revised −69k. | ||||
| 2026-02-11 Jan 2026 | +130k forecast +55k | ▲ +1.3%, then sold off next day | ▲ DXY +0.1% | 4.3% forecast 4.4% |
| Delayed by shutdown; benchmark revision cut 2025 by −898k. | ||||
| 2026-01-09 Dec 2025 | +50k forecast +73k | ▲ +0.5%; +3.9% on the week | ▲ DXY toward 99, 1-month high | 4.4% forecast 4.5% |
| 2025 the weakest year for jobs since 2003 outside recessions. | ||||
| 2025-12-16 Oct+Nov 2025 | +64k forecast +45k | ▲ +0.2%, held above $4,300 | ▼ DXY −0.2%, 2-month low | 4.6% forecast 4.5% |
| Two months combined after the shutdown; unemployment highest since 2021. | ||||
| 2025-11-20 Sep 2025 | +119k forecast +50k | ▼ −0.4% modest | ▲ DXY firm near 6-month high | 4.4% forecast 4.3% |
| Delayed 7 weeks by the shutdown; the October report was cancelled. | ||||
| 2025-09-05 Aug 2025 | +22k forecast +75k | ▲ +1.0% to a record high | ▼ DXY −0.5%, 5-week low | 4.3% forecast 4.3% |
| June revised negative; locked in the September cut. | ||||
| 2025-08-01 Jul 2025 | +73k forecast +100k | ▲ +1.5% (~+$49) | ▼ DXY −1.5%, biggest drop since May | 4.2% forecast 4.2% |
| May/Jun revised −258k; the BLS commissioner was fired hours later. | ||||
| 2025-07-03 Jun 2025 | +147k forecast +110k | ▼ −1% as cut hopes faded | ▲ dollar firmer | 4.1% forecast 4.3% |
| Beat driven by government hiring; later revised to −13k. | ||||
The other markets going in
Seven-day picture, hourly closes from TNFX's own MT5 pricing — not a third-party embed. Refreshed each time this page is rebuilt.
USD/JPY158.28▲ +0.64% 7 days
EUR/USD1.11770▼ −0.21% 7 days
S&P 5007,379▼ −3.49% 7 days
Nasdaq 10027,070▼ −5.76% 7 days
Dow Jones51,036▼ −2.61% 7 days
WTI oil91.23▼ −13.01% 7 days
Bitcoin76,110▼ −2.05% 7 days
For traders in the Arab region
A $50 move in the ounce is about $1.60 per gram of 24k gold — and $50 is inside the normal range for an NFP hour. The riyal, dirham and Jordanian dinar are pegged to the dollar, so gold priced in them moves exactly with gold in dollars.
A strong report strengthens the dollar and raises the cost of dollar borrowing across the region; a weak one does the opposite. Neither shows in shop prices on Friday, but Friday sets the direction for the weeks into the Fed meeting.
- Spreads widen for a few minutes at 16:30 at every broker. Pending orders can fill worse than the price you see.
- On Turbo leverage a $20 move in gold is a large share of the margin on a small account. Size for a $46–113 range — that is what our feed measured on the last seven NFP days.
- Stops and take-profits placed before the release execute at market on the release. Decide before 16:25 whether you want to be in at all.
What to read in the report before you trade it
- Revisions to August and September. A big downward revision to the prior two months turns a strong headline into a soft report.
- Average hourly earnings. +0.4% or more is inflationary and hawkish even with weak jobs; +0.2% is the opposite.
- The unemployment rate and participation. Unemployment falling because people left the workforce is not strength.
- Government versus private. Watch whether the gain leans on a single sector or a seasonal swing that can reverse, rather than broad-based hiring.
- The household survey. In the June report it showed −507k employed while payrolls printed +57k. When the two surveys disagree, the market takes longer to settle.
This page explains an event; it is not investment advice. CFDs are leveraged and you can lose more than you deposit on a fast release. TNFX Ltd is licensed by the FSA Seychelles (SD133).
What happens next
Attention now turns to the next CPI on 18 November and the 9 December Fed decision. We will add the market's verdict by the close.
Sources
- Bloomberg — jobs report seen at +90k, 4.1% (26 Sep)
- BLS — Employment Situation (release schedule)
- BLS — August 2026 report archive
- Trading Economics — US non-farm payrolls
- KPMG — September 2026 employment primer
- Capital Economics — employment report preview
- CME FedWatch via GrowBeansprout
- Federal Reserve — 16 Sep press conference
- CNBC — August jobs report
- Kitco — gold after the August print
- USAGOLD — market report 28 Sep 2026
- Investing.com — NFP calendar
Common questions
What time is the NFP report on Friday?
16:30 Mecca time (GMT+3) on Friday 6 November 2026 — 08:30 in New York. Payrolls, the unemployment rate and wages publish together; this page shows them the moment they are out.
What is the forecast?
About +65,000 new jobs (the consensus) and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, with wages up 0.3% on the month. Individual forecasts range from +50,000 to +120,000; September was +29,000.
Why does gold drop after a strong NFP?
Usually down at first, because it raises the odds of Fed hikes and lifts the dollar and bond yields. On 4 September gold fell 2% on the +162k print; on 5 June it fell 3.3% on +172k. The size depends on wages and the unemployment rate as much as the headline.
Why does gold rise when NFP misses?
Up — a miss trims hike odds and weakens the dollar. On 7 August gold rose 2.4% (about $100) when payrolls printed −23k; on 2 July it rose 2.2% on +57k against 115k expected.
Why do both jobs and unemployment matter?
Because they can disagree. Fewer available workers means a small payroll number can still leave unemployment at 4.1%, while a strong headline with rising unemployment signals slack. The Fed chair has said he weighs the unemployment rate over the headline, so the pair decides the reaction — hence the scenario grid above.
Can I trade the report on TNFX?
Yes — gold, forex, indices, oil and crypto CFDs on MT4 and MT5. Spreads widen briefly at 15:30; the risk points above matter more than usual.
What is NFP in forex trading?
NFP stands for non-farm payrolls: the number of jobs the US economy added last month, excluding farm work, published every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics alongside the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Forex traders watch it because it moves Federal Reserve rate expectations, and those expectations drive the dollar, gold and bond yields.
How to trade NFP: is there an NFP trading strategy that works?
No single strategy works every month, because the reaction depends on the unemployment rate and wages as much as the headline. Common approaches: stay flat through the release and trade the settle an hour later; wait for the first candle to close rather than chase it; or trade only the instruments most sensitive to US rates. Size for the widest release range, not the average.
Should I trade during NFP?
Only with a plan decided before the release and a smaller position than usual. Spreads widen, liquidity thins and price can jump levels, so a stop or pending order can fill worse than the level you set. Being flat through the release and trading the move once it settles is a legitimate choice, not a missed one.
Why do spreads widen and stops slip at the NFP release?
Because in the seconds around the release the market quotes wider and in smaller size until the number has been read. An order then fills at the next available level, which can be past the level you set. That gap is slippage, and it is normal market behaviour at a scheduled release rather than an error. Spreads usually return to their usual range within minutes.