Tension in the Strait of Hormuz rose again between Thursday 29 and Saturday 31 October 2026. A tanker was hit by limpet mines off Oman, the first attack of its kind in the strait since 2019; Iran claimed that more tankers had struck its mines; and on Saturday Iran said a US drone had attacked two of its fishing boats near Qeshm Island. Diplomacy has not stopped: Iran calls a letter from US Vice President JD Vance a positive step but does not rule out war. Brent crude ended the week at $116.80 on our MT5 feed, and the weekend's events reach the market when trading reopens on Monday.
What happened
The US–Iran war that began on 28 February 2026 has made the strait between Iran and Oman its front line at sea. These are the incidents of the last three days, with Iran's claims marked as claims:
Iran's Revolutionary Guards say three "violating" tankers hit mines on what Tehran calls an unauthorised southern route near the Omani coast, and Iran's army says a fourth caught fire east of the strait. This has not been independently verified; US Central Command says the main shipping lanes are clear of mines.
The UK's maritime security agency (UKMTO) reports that a small boat attached two explosive devices to a tanker about 25 nautical miles north-east of Khasab, Oman. An engine-room fire broke out; the crew were safe. It is the first limpet-mine attack in the strait since 2019.
Oman rescues 25 crew from a burning Panama-flagged tanker off Musandam. Iran repeats its claim of four mined tankers.
Iranian officials say a drone they blame on the United States attacked two Iranian fishing boats 14–18 nautical miles off Qeshm Island; two fishermen were injured. There is no US confirmation.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, orders commanders to answer any new US or Israeli attack with an "immediate and effective response, without geographical limitation".
Diplomacy is still running
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said a letter from US Vice President JD Vance, delivered through Qatari mediators, was a positive step, but that Iran has no plan to meet US officials and does not rule out any possibility of war. The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said Washington's tone had completely changed. The United States votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday 3 November.
Why Hormuz matters to every trader
About a fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, together with a large share of the Gulf's liquefied natural gas. Every incident is therefore priced into oil within minutes, and from oil into inflation expectations, interest-rate bets, gold and the currencies of oil importers and exporters.
Ships are still moving. The United States says it escorts tanker exports and that the main lanes are open, while Iran says the southern corridor near Oman is unauthorised and mined. The gap between those two pictures is what keeps a war premium in the oil price.
Oil and gold on our feed
Brent (UKOIL) closed Friday at $116.80 on our MT5 feed: +0.51% on the day and +1.20% over five days, after trading as high as $118.80. US crude (USOIL) is at $103.61. Oil ended October with a fourth monthly gain in a row.
Gold did not act as a safe haven this time. It fell −3.63% on Friday to $3,875.05, because growing bets on a US rate hike outweighed the war.
Brent, WTI and gold side by side over the same five days:
Scenarios for the week
- Escalation: confirmed new attacks on tankers, or a US strike in answer to Iran's threats, would most likely push oil higher and could open prices with a gap on Monday.
- Holding pattern: more claims but no confirmed hits on major shipping, with tankers still moving, would keep oil inside its recent range.
- De-escalation: progress in the talks around the Vance letter would take part of the war premium out of oil.
What to watch next
- Monday's open: the weekend's events were not traded on Friday, so oil and gold can open with a gap.
- Shipping notices from UKMTO and statements from US Central Command: they confirm or deny incidents faster than anyone.
- Iran's answer to the Qeshm incident, and any US reply.
- Tuesday 3 November: the US mid-term elections.
- The Federal Reserve: oil at these levels feeds inflation, and markets now expect a rate hike in December.
Trading oil and gold at TNFX
Brent (UKOIL), WTI (USOIL) and gold (XAUUSD) are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around news like this spreads can widen and prices can gap at the open, so use stop-losses and size positions for the risk.
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Common questions
What happened in the Strait of Hormuz this week?
A tanker was hit by limpet mines off Khasab, Oman, late on 29 October, the first such attack in the strait since 2019; Iran claimed that four tankers hit its mines; and on 31 October Iran said a US drone attacked two Iranian fishing boats near Qeshm Island.
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed?
No. Ships continue to pass. The United States says the main lanes are clear and that it escorts tanker exports; Iran says a southern route near Oman is unauthorised and mined.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz move oil prices?
About a fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through it, so any threat to shipping there raises the risk premium in oil, and through oil in inflation and interest-rate expectations.
What is the Brent oil price now?
On the TNFX MT5 feed Brent closed the week at $116.80 (+1.20% over five days). Markets are closed at the weekend and reopen on Monday.
Did gold rise because of the Iran tensions?
No. Gold fell −3.63% on Friday to $3,875.05 because expectations of a US rate hike in December outweighed the war risk.
When can oil prices move next?
At Monday's open, when the weekend's events are traded for the first time; then around the US elections on 3 November and any new incident in the strait.