Fed decision on 28 October: hike again or hold? What it means for gold
The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday 28 October at 21:00 Mecca time. Six weeks after its first hike since 2023, the question is whether it goes again. September inflation jumped to 3.7% on gasoline while hiring nearly stalled — and markets now price roughly a 40% chance of another 25 bp step. Here is what each outcome means for gold, the dollar and your positions.
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How the news moves gold
Gold is the market this decision moves most, so it comes first. Live price in the bar above; below, the week from our own feed and what each outcome usually does to it.
Why this meeting matters
On 16 September the Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% — its first hike since July 2023 — by a unanimous 12–0 vote, and 16 of the 18 officials who submitted a dot pencilled in at least one more hike this year. Gold fell about $100 that night.
Since then the data have pulled in opposite directions. September CPI rose 0.6% in the month and 3.7% on the year, up from 3.4% and above the 3.6% forecast; gasoline alone (+9.1% in the month) explains more than half of the rise. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% to 2.6% on the year — also above forecast, but far below the headline. Jobs went the other way: employers added only 29,000 jobs in September against about 85,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%.
So the Fed has to choose: hike again now, or wait for December, when it publishes new projections. After the CPI print the odds of an October hike roughly doubled, to about 40% (CME FedWatch, 14 October). Goldman Sachs expects the next hike in December; New York Fed President John Williams has said one more hike this year may be enough, with no need for urgency. The meeting also falls less than a week before the US midterm elections on 3 November.
The timeline (Mecca time, GMT+3)
The vote, the target range and the wording on inflation and jobs. There are no new projections and no dot plot at this meeting — those come in December — so the statement's wording and the vote split carry more weight than usual.
About an hour of questions. Listen for whether December is still on the table, how he weighs the gasoline-driven jump in inflation against the weak September jobs report, and any dissent in the vote.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, out the day after the decision. A hot reading keeps a December hike alive even if the Fed holds.
December brings new projections and the dot plot. Markets see a December hike as more likely than not.
Who speaks
Sworn in on 22 May 2026 as the 17th Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell, and a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011. On 16 September he led the first hike since 2023 and said the Fed cannot single-handedly stop price shocks on items like oil, but has a role in stopping inflation from broadening out — exactly the question September's gasoline-driven CPI now puts to him. At 21:30 he takes questions for about an hour.
The four scenarios
The split between a hold and a hike is the market's (CME FedWatch, 14 October, after the CPI report); how each splits by tone is our reading. Reactions are the typical first move; the press conference can reverse any of them. Odds move with the data — this page is updated before the meeting.
| Scenario | Odds | Gold | US dollar | US stocks | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold, December kept open “not done yet” | ≈ 40–45% | Small dip, then range | Firm | Flat to slightly lower | The Goldman and Williams view. The dollar keeps its gains; gold waits for December. |
| Hike 25 bp → 4.00–4.25% back-to-back hikes | ≈ 40% | ▼ 1–2% fast | ▲ rallies, USD/JPY up | ▼ growth stocks hit | Half priced, so the drop is smaller than on a full surprise — but a second hike in a row says the Fed is chasing inflation. |
| Hold, patient tone energy seen as a temporary shock | ≈ 15% | ▲ 1–2% | ▼ slips | ▲ rally | Core at 2.6% and a weak jobs report give Warsh cover to wait. Gold's best case on the night. |
| Hike 50 bp tail risk | < 2% | ▼ heavy | ▲ jumps | ▼ sharp | Not priced. Liquidity thins, spreads widen, stops get hit — the night to be small. |
The other markets going in
Seven-day picture, hourly closes from TNFX's own MT5 pricing — not a third-party embed. Refreshed each time this page is rebuilt.
For traders in the Arab region
A $50 move in the ounce is about $1.60 per gram of 24k gold — the size of swing that has happened inside the press conference on recent Fed nights. The riyal, dirham and Jordanian dinar are pegged to the dollar, so gold priced in them moves exactly with gold in dollars.
A hike strengthens the dollar and lifts the cost of dollar borrowing across the region; a hold does the opposite. Neither shows up in shop prices tonight — but tonight sets the direction for the months ahead.
- Spreads widen for a few minutes around 21:00 and 21:30 at every broker. Pending orders can fill worse than the price you see.
- On Turbo leverage a $20 move in gold is a large share of the margin on a small account. Size for a range of about $110 — gold moved that much on three of the last four Fed nights.
- Stops and take-profits placed before the release execute at market on the release. Decide before 20:55 whether you want to be in at all.
What to listen for from Warsh
- Is December still live? If he holds, the most important sentence of the night is whether another hike is coming.
- Energy or broad inflation? Does he call the gasoline jump a one-off, or worry that it spreads?
- The jobs report. How much weight he gives to 29,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment.
- Dissents. A vote for a hike in a hold (or for a hold in a hike) shows where the next move leans.
- The election and the White House. Less than a week before the midterms, how he answers moves the dollar.
Sources
- BLS — Consumer Price Index, September 2026
- CNBC — September CPI breakdown
- InvestmentNews — October hike odds after CPI
- investingLive — September payrolls +29K
- investingLive — Goldman moves its next-hike call to December
- Yahoo Finance — the October hike debate
- Federal Reserve — FOMC calendar
Common questions
What time is the Fed decision?
21:00 Mecca time (GMT+3) on Wednesday 28 October 2026 — 14:00 in New York. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference follows at 21:30.
Will the Fed raise rates on 28 October?
It is close, leaning towards a hold. After September's 3.7% inflation print, markets priced about a 40% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.00–4.25% (CME FedWatch, 14 October); the rest is a hold at 3.75–4.00%. Goldman Sachs expects the next hike in December.
What does the Fed decision do to gold?
A hike usually pushes gold down at first, because it lifts the dollar and bond yields; a hold with a patient tone usually lifts it. On the last four Fed nights gold moved between about $47 and $112 from 20:30 to 01:00 Mecca time.
Why is inflation rising again?
Mostly gasoline: it rose 9.1% in September and explains more than half of the monthly CPI rise. Core inflation, without food and energy, is 2.6% on the year.
Is there a dot plot on 28 October?
No. The Fed publishes projections and the dot plot four times a year; the next set comes with the 9 December decision. On 28 October the statement, the vote and Warsh's press conference are the whole event.
Can I trade the decision on TNFX?
Yes — gold, forex, indices, oil and crypto CFDs on MT4 and MT5. Spreads widen briefly at 21:00 and 21:30; the risk points above matter more than usual.