Israel's general election on Tuesday 27 October 2026 produced no winner. The final count, published by the Central Elections Committee on Thursday 29 October, gives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot 48 seats. Both are short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, while Arab parties won 19 seats. President Isaac Herzog is due to start talks with the parties on Wednesday 4 November. For traders, the question is who will set Israel's policy on Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and how long the uncertainty lasts. Brent crude ended the week at $116.80 on our MT5 feed.
What happened
Israelis voted for all 120 members of the 26th Knesset. These are the key steps since polling day:
Israel holds its general election. Exit polls on election night show no clear winner.
President Isaac Herzog urges party leaders to approach coalition talks with an open mind and to do everything possible to avoid another election.
The Central Elections Committee publishes the final count with all votes counted: Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48, Arab parties 19. The committee says the vote was conducted lawfully and rejects claims of systematic interference.
Herzog repeats his call, asking parties to come to the talks with an open mind and an open heart and to find creative solutions to prevent another election.
Herzog is due to receive the official results from the committee's chairman, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, and to begin consultations with the parties.
Why no one has a majority yet
Netanyahu's bloc is still the larger one, but it is 8 seats short. The opposition bloc is 13 seats short. The 19 seats won by Arab parties could decide the outcome, but both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have previously ruled out a coalition with them, and opposition party leader Avigdor Liberman has refused to sit in a government with Arab parties.
Arab party leaders have signalled that they are open to working with the opposition. Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu in the past, so a unity government would require at least one side to change its position. If no coalition can be formed, Israel could face another election. Until a new government is sworn in, Netanyahu's current government stays in office.
How the next step works
By law, the president must consult every party in the Knesset before he chooses who gets the first chance to form a government. That person normally has 28 days, which can be extended by up to 14 days. If the attempt fails, the mandate can pass to another member of the Knesset. This means the uncertainty could last for weeks.
Why it matters for prices
Israel is involved in conflicts on several fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon, and the region is still living with the US–Iran war that began on 28 February 2026. The next government will set Israel's policy on all of them. That is why traders follow the coalition talks: policy shifts can change the risk premium in oil and in safe havens such as gold.
The most direct exposure is in the Israeli shekel and Israeli shares. For global markets, Israel's politics is one regional factor among several this week, next to the US mid-term elections on Tuesday 3 November and events around the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil and gold on our feed
Brent (UKOIL) ended the week at $116.80 on our MT5 feed, a move of +0.82% over five days, in a range between $113.71 and $118.80. US crude (USOIL) is at $103.61.
Gold (XAUUSD) is at $3,875.05, after moving −3.63% on Friday, and the US 500 index moved −1.27% on the day. Markets are closed at the weekend and reopen on Monday.
Brent, gold and the US 500 side by side over the same five days:
Scenarios
- Quick deal: if a coalition takes shape soon, the political uncertainty would fade, and markets may focus again on the security situation and on global factors.
- Long talks: if consultations drag on for weeks, the current government stays in charge and markets may treat Israeli politics as a background risk rather than a driver.
- Another election: if no one can form a government, Israel would face a new campaign, which could keep a risk premium in the shekel and in Israeli assets for longer.
- Policy change: if a new government signals a different approach to Gaza, Lebanon or Iran, oil and gold may react, depending on whether the change is seen as raising or lowering the risk of conflict.
What to watch next
- Monday's open: the first trading session after the final count was digested over the weekend.
- Tuesday 3 November: the US mid-term elections.
- Wednesday 4 November: Herzog receives the official results and begins consultations with the parties.
- Recommendations: which leader each party names to Herzog, especially the Arab parties and Yisrael Beytenu.
- The fronts: any new escalation in Gaza, Lebanon or with Iran, which can move oil faster than politics.
Trading oil and gold at TNFX
Brent (UKOIL), WTI (USOIL), gold (XAUUSD) and the US 500 are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around political and geopolitical news, spreads can widen and prices can gap at the open, so use stop-losses and size positions for the risk.
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Common questions
Who won the Israeli election 2026?
No one won a majority. In the final count of 29 October, Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc won 48. A government needs 61 of the 120 Knesset seats.
How many seats did the Arab parties win in Israel?
Arab parties won 19 seats. They could decide the outcome, but Netanyahu and Eisenkot have both previously ruled out a coalition with them.
When do coalition talks start in Israel?
President Isaac Herzog is due to receive the official results and begin consultations with the parties on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
Will Israel hold another election?
It is possible. If no leader can form a coalition, a new election could be called. Herzog has urged all parties to find creative solutions to avoid it.
Is Netanyahu still prime minister?
Yes. His current government stays in office until a new government is sworn in.
How does the Israeli election affect oil and gold?
The next government will set Israel's policy on Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Changes in that policy can raise or lower the risk premium in oil and gold. Brent is at $116.80 and gold at $3,875.05 on the TNFX MT5 feed.