US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday 10 November at 16:30 Mecca time. That is slower than September's 0.6%, but above the 0.3% economists expected. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third month in a row. Four and a half hours earlier, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that a core reading of around 0.3% or higher would mean a 50 basis point rate hike should be considered in December. Gold is at $4,057.06 on our MT5 feed.
What happened on Tuesday
Two events moved rate expectations within a few hours: a Fed governor's speech in London and the US inflation report for October. All times are Mecca time.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking in London, says he leans toward a 25 basis point hike at the December meeting even if October inflation improves. If core CPI is around 0.3% or higher, he says a 50 basis point hike "should be considered".
A poll of 101 economists, taken from 6 to 10 November, is published: all 101 expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, to a range of 4.00%-4.25%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October CPI: +0.4% on the month for all items and +0.3% for core, both above forecasts of 0.3% and 0.2%.
US stock index futures fall, led by the Nasdaq, and the two-year Treasury yield, the one most tied to Fed decisions, jumps by more than 10 basis points.
The October CPI in numbers
All figures are seasonally adjusted monthly changes unless stated otherwise.
- All items: +0.4% in October, after +0.6% in September.
- Core (excluding food and energy): +0.3%, the same as in September and August.
- Shelter: +0.3%, more than thirty percent of the monthly increase.
- Food: +0.5%. Food at home rose 0.4% and food away from home 0.5%.
- Energy: +0.7%, after +5.2% in September. Gasoline rose 1.0% on the month and is 37.4% higher than a year earlier.
- Falls: used cars and trucks dropped 1.2% and communication 0.1%.
- Rises in core: recreation, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and education.
Why there is no annual inflation rate this month
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect price data for October 2025 because of a lapse in US government funding. Without that base month it cannot publish 12-month changes for most CPI series for October 2026. That is why this report is read through its monthly numbers.
For the yearly picture, the Fed's preferred gauge helps. Waller noted that PCE inflation was 3.7% over the 12 months to September, and core PCE 3.1%, well above the Fed's 2% goal.
What the Fed is saying
The Fed raised rates in September and held them at 3.75%-4.00% on 28 October, by a 10-2 vote. Its next meeting is on 8-9 December and comes with new economic projections.
Waller said September's inflation data "were bad" and that he is worried price rises have become broad. He also pointed to energy: insurance and ship-to-ship transfers needed to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz are reportedly adding $20 to $30 a barrel, and US diesel prices may stay high. On a 25 basis point move after a hot core reading, he said it "would put our credibility at risk".
In the economists' poll, 56 of 101 expect December's hike to be the last of this cycle, while 45 see at least one more after it.
How markets moved on our feed
Gold fell more than 1% on Tuesday before the data, as Waller's comments lifted bets on higher US rates. Higher rates raise the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. On our MT5 feed gold (XAUUSD) is at $4,057.06, −1.55% over 24 hours and −1.57% over five days, in a range of $4,027.17 to $4,148.48.
The dollar index is at 102.01 (+0.17% in 24 hours). The S&P 500 (US500) has moved +0.95% over 24 hours; that figure still includes Monday's rally, while the fall in futures came after the data.
Gold, the dollar index, the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin over the same five days:
What it means for traders in our region
- Gulf: most Gulf currencies are pegged to the US dollar, so their central banks usually follow Fed moves. A December hike would likely feed into local borrowing costs.
- Emerging-market currencies: higher US rates tend to support the dollar against currencies such as the Mexican peso. USD/MXN (USDMXN) is at 18.69, +0.36% in 24 hours.
- Oil: Brent (UKOIL) moved −4.77% in 24 hours to $91.86, as hopes of a US-Iran deal weigh. Lower oil would help future inflation readings, but energy is only part of the story: core prices are still rising 0.3% a month.
Scenarios
- Bets on a 50 basis point hike grow: if more Fed officials follow Waller, markets may push yields and the dollar higher, and gold and growth stocks could stay under pressure.
- 25 basis points stays the base case: if officials signal a steady hike and nothing more, markets may treat the December move as fully priced and swings could calm.
- Inflation cools: if oil keeps falling and later data show core prices easing, markets may scale back bets on hikes beyond December, which would likely ease pressure on gold.
What to watch next
- Today's Wall Street session: cash trading opens at 17:30 Mecca time, the first full test of the CPI reaction.
- Fed speakers: any official who backs or rejects Waller's 50 basis point idea can move the dollar and gold.
- Wednesday 9 December: the Fed's rate decision and new projections, at the end of the 8-9 December meeting.
- Thursday 10 December, 16:30 Mecca time: the November CPI. It comes one day after the Fed decision, so October's report is the last CPI before the meeting.
- Oil and Iran talks: energy prices remain a key input to US inflation.
Trading gold, the dollar and indices at TNFX
Gold (XAUUSD), the dollar index, major currency pairs and US indices such as the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (USTEC) are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around inflation data and Fed news spreads can widen and prices can jump in seconds, so use stop-losses and size positions for the risk.
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Common questions
What was the US CPI for October 2026?
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, after 0.6% in September. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%. Both were above forecasts of 0.3% and 0.2%.
Why is there no annual US inflation rate for October 2026?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect data for October 2025 because of a lapse in government funding, so it cannot publish 12-month changes for most CPI series for October 2026.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
All 101 economists in a poll published on 10 November expect a 25 basis point hike at the 8-9 December meeting, to 4.00%-4.25%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 50 basis point hike should be considered if core CPI is around 0.3% or higher, which it was.
Why did gold fall today?
Gold fell more than 1% on Tuesday before the data, as Waller's comments raised bets on higher US rates. On our MT5 feed gold is at $4,057.06, −1.55% over 24 hours.
What time was the US CPI released?
At 16:30 Mecca time on Tuesday 10 November 2026 (8:30 a.m. in New York).
When is the next US CPI report?
The November CPI is due on Thursday 10 December 2026 at 16:30 Mecca time, one day after the Fed's December rate decision.
How does US inflation affect the Gulf and emerging markets?
Most Gulf currencies are pegged to the dollar, so Gulf central banks usually follow Fed rate moves. Higher US rates also tend to support the dollar against emerging-market currencies such as the Mexican peso.