Two pieces of news on Friday 6 November 2026 put US interest rates back at the centre of the market. In Frankfurt, New York Fed President John Williams said US inflation is absolutely too high and must return to the 2% target. At 16:30 Mecca time, official data showed the US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above forecasts, with unemployment at 4.1%. Together they strengthen the case for a Fed rate hike. They come one day after a sharp sell-off in US technology stocks. Gold is at $4,036.42 on our MT5 feed, −2.13% over 24 hours.
What happened
These are the confirmed events of the last two days:
US stocks fell sharply as chip and AI shares sold off. The Dow Jones lost more than 1,800 points, or 3.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, entering a correction. Nvidia closed down 9%. The fall erased the rally that followed the US mid-term election results the day before.
New York Fed President John Williams told a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt: "Inflation is absolutely too high. It's been too high for too long." He said it is "absolutely essential" to bring inflation back to 2% "in a timely manner and a sustained basis".
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payrolls rose by 165,000 in October. The unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1%. Hiring for August and September was revised up by a combined 84,000.
What Williams said
Williams said US growth has stayed resilient and the labour market is remarkably stable despite successive shocks, but that inflation must come down. Inflation has risen around the world. The main reason is that the US war on Iran has pushed up energy prices. Heavy investment in AI has also raised costs for some IT products and services.
He also gave a calmer message. He said the Fed should focus on where inflation is heading and make sure today's shocks do not turn into broader, more lasting inflation. So far, he said, inflation expectations remain well anchored, and wage growth is consistent with the 2% goal.
Williams did not say what the Fed's next move should be. He said the Fed's last policy statement was right to conclude that it should collect more information before deciding on the stance of policy. In June he had already pushed back his forecast for reaching 2% inflation from 2027 to 2028. Before the jobs data, markets priced a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate hike in December, and a hike by March was fully priced in.
The October jobs report in numbers
- Payrolls: +165,000 in October, against an average monthly gain of 48,000 over the prior 12 months.
- Revisions: August raised to +186,000 from +133,000; September raised to +60,000 from +29,000.
- Unemployment rate: 4.1%, inside the 4.1% to 4.3% range it has held since March.
- Wages: average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month to $38.00, and 3.1% over 12 months.
- Where the jobs came from: professional and business services (+70,000), health care (+42,000), transportation and warehousing (+25,000) and manufacturing (+19,000).
Why it matters for prices
A strong labour market removes one of the main reasons for the Fed to wait. With inflation well above target, stronger hiring makes a rate hike easier to justify. Higher US rate expectations usually support the dollar. They usually weigh on gold, which pays no interest, and on growth stocks such as technology shares.
Wages are the other side. Pay growth of 3.1% a year is moderate. That fits Williams's view that inflation is coming from energy and other shocks, not from wages. It leaves the Fed with a difficult choice, and every new data point can move markets.
Gold, the dollar and stocks on our feed
Gold (XAUUSD) is at $4,036.42, −2.13% over 24 hours and +3.79% over five days, in a range between $3,884.70 and $4,146.91. The US dollar index is at 102.27 (+0.66% over 24 hours), and EUR/USD is at 1.1140.
The S&P 500 is at 7,367.30, −4.29% over 24 hours, and the Nasdaq 100 (USTEC) moved −4.05%. The 24-hour figures include Thursday's sell-off. For traders in Mexico, the peso (USD/MXN) is at 18.67. Emerging-market currencies are often sensitive to higher US rates.
Gold, the dollar index, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 side by side over the same five days:
Scenarios
- Hawkish path: if more Fed officials echo Williams and the next inflation data stay high, markets may raise the odds of a December hike. That would tend to support the dollar and weigh on gold and technology stocks.
- Wait and see: if officials stress that inflation expectations are anchored and wages are calm, markets may keep the current mix: a possible move in December and a likely hike by March.
- Softer inflation: if energy prices ease or inflation data come in lower than expected, markets may cut their hike bets. That would usually help gold and stocks and weaken the dollar.
What to watch next
- Fed speakers: more officials are likely to react to the jobs report. What they say about a December hike matters most.
- The next US inflation (CPI) report: the key test of whether energy costs are spreading to other prices.
- Energy prices and the Iran war: Williams named energy as the main source of inflation, so oil moves feed straight into rate bets.
- AI and chip stocks: after Thursday's fall, technology shares remain the part of the market most sensitive to higher rates.
- Friday 4 December, 16:30 Mecca time: the November jobs report.
Trading gold, the dollar and indices at TNFX
Gold (XAUUSD), the US dollar index, EUR/USD, the S&P 500 (US500), the Nasdaq 100 (USTEC) and the Dow (DJ30) are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around data and central-bank news, spreads can widen and prices can move fast, so use stop-losses and size positions for the risk.
Trade gold, the dollar and US indices on MT5
Open a real account in two minutes, or practise first on a free demo account with virtual money.
Common questions
What did Fed's Williams say about inflation today?
On 6 November 2026 in Frankfurt, New York Fed President John Williams said US inflation is "absolutely too high" and that it is essential to bring it back to the 2% target. He added that inflation expectations remain well anchored. He did not say what the Fed's next move should be.
How many jobs did the US add in October 2026?
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, well above forecasts. The unemployment rate was 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% over a year.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in December 2026?
No decision has been made. Before Friday's jobs data, markets priced a better-than-even chance of a December hike, and a hike by March was fully priced in. A strong jobs report and high inflation make a hike easier to justify.
Why is US inflation high in 2026?
Officials point mainly to the US war on Iran, which has pushed energy prices higher. Heavy AI investment has also raised costs for some IT products and services.
How does a Fed rate hike affect gold?
Higher US rates usually strengthen the dollar and raise the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. So expectations of a hike tend to weigh on gold. Gold is at $4,036.42 on the TNFX MT5 feed, −2.13% over 24 hours.
Why did US stocks fall on Thursday?
On Thursday 5 November chip and AI shares sold off sharply. The Dow lost more than 1,800 points and the Nasdaq fell 5.5% into a correction. Rising US rate expectations add pressure on technology stocks.
When is the next US jobs report?
The November jobs report is scheduled for Friday 4 December 2026 at 16:30 Mecca time.