The US dollar lost ground on Monday 9 November 2026, one trading day after a strong US jobs report pushed it higher. Oil fell after President Donald Trump said new strikes on Iran were highly unlikely if talks make progress, and investors moved out of safe havens into stocks. Markets still see a good chance of a US rate hike in December. That makes the US inflation report on Tuesday 10 November at 16:30 Mecca time the next big test. The US Dollar Index stands at 101.84 on our MT5 feed, −0.43% over 24 hours.
What happened
Two forces have pulled the dollar in opposite directions over the past week. Strong US data and bets on a Fed rate hike pushed it up. Falling oil and hopes for diplomacy with Iran pulled it down. These are the key events:
The United States holds mid-term elections. Democrats win control of Congress.
The Bank of England raises its Bank Rate to 4%.
The US Labor Department reports that employers added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the forecast of about 65,000. The unemployment rate falls to 4.1%. The dollar jumps, and bets on a Fed hike in December rise to close to 80%.
The University of Michigan survey shows consumer sentiment rising to 51 from 48 in November. One-year inflation expectations ease to 4.3% from 4.7%.
Trump says further strikes on Iran are "highly unlikely" to be necessary if negotiations produce a strong deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the talks have made little progress. Both the US and Iran report new shipping incidents near the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil falls at the open, stocks rebound and the dollar is among the weakest major currencies. Trump meets Qatar's Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, at the White House to discuss Iran.
Why the dollar fell despite strong jobs data
A strong jobs report usually supports the dollar, because it gives the Federal Reserve room to keep raising rates. That is what happened on Friday. On Monday, three other forces took over.
First, lower oil prices ease the inflation pressure that has kept the Fed leaning towards higher rates. Second, hopes for diplomacy with Iran reduced demand for safe havens such as the dollar. Third, global stocks rebounded after last week's sharp fall in technology shares, and money moved into riskier currencies.
The Fed is still what limits the dollar's fall. As long as markets see a December hike as likely, many analysts expect the dollar's dips to stay small.
The dollar on our feed
The US Dollar Index (USD-Index) is at 101.84 on our MT5 feed. It has moved −0.43% over 24 hours and +0.49% over five days, in a range of 101.19 to 102.37.
EUR/USD is at 1.1195 (+0.50% on the day). Expectations that the European Central Bank may also raise rates in December are supporting the euro. USD/JPY is at 157.96 (−0.31%).
The Dollar Index, EUR/USD, gold and USD/MXN side by side over the same five days. A rising EUR/USD line means a weaker dollar. A rising USD/MXN line means a stronger dollar against the Mexican peso:
Gold, oil and local currencies
Gold moved +1.24% in 24 hours to $4,120.28, as a softer dollar outweighed the rate-hike bets. Brent crude (UKOIL) moved −4.47% to $96.53.
The move also reached currencies in our readers' markets:
- Mexico: the peso gained against the dollar on Monday. USD/MXN is at 18.64 on our feed (+0.14%).
- Brazil: the dollar fell 0.24% to 5.496 reais at 15:10 Mecca time. Investors were also weighing a speech on fiscal responsibility by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
- Nigeria: Central Bank of Nigeria data show the naira at 1,346.79 per dollar on 6 November, about 6.3% stronger than the 1,436.74 of a year earlier. Reserves stood at $55.133 billion on 5 November. Governor Olayemi Cardoso defended a market-driven exchange rate.
- Egypt: bank prices for the dollar eased against the Egyptian pound in Monday trading.
- Turkey: USD/TRY is at 50.10 (+0.25%).
- The Gulf: the Saudi riyal, UAE dirham, Qatari riyal and other Gulf currencies are pegged to the dollar. Against the euro, the yen and gold, they move with the dollar.
Scenarios for the week
- Hot US inflation on Tuesday: if October prices rise faster than expected, bets on a December Fed hike may grow. The dollar may then recover while gold comes under pressure.
- Soft US inflation: if the numbers come in below forecasts, rate-hike bets may fall. The dollar may then extend Monday's losses, which could support gold, the euro and emerging-market currencies.
- Iran talks: progress after the Trump–Qatar meeting may push oil lower and weigh further on the dollar. If the talks break down or new strikes happen, oil may rise and money may move back into the dollar as a safe haven.
What to watch next
- Monday 9 November: the outcome of Trump's meeting on Iran with Qatar's Prime Minister.
- Tuesday 10 November, 16:30 Mecca time: the US consumer price index for October, the main event for the dollar this week.
- Thursday 12 November: UK growth data, which can move GBP/USD after last week's Bank of England hike.
- Fed speakers: any comment on the December decision.
- 8–9 December: the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting, with the decision on 9 December.
Trading the dollar at TNFX
The US Dollar Index (USD-Index), EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/MXN, USD/TRY and gold (XAUUSD) are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around US inflation data, spreads can widen and prices can jump in seconds. Use stop-losses and size positions for the risk.
Trade the dollar on MT5
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Common questions
Why is the US dollar falling today?
On Monday 9 November 2026 the dollar weakened for two reasons. Oil fell after Trump said new strikes on Iran were highly unlikely if talks progress, and investors moved from safe havens into stocks.
Why did the dollar rise on Friday 6 November?
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the forecast of about 65,000, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. That raised bets on a Fed rate hike in December.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in December 2026?
Markets put the chance of a 25 basis point hike at the Fed meeting on 8–9 December at close to 80%. That is a market expectation, not a decision, and it can change after Tuesday's inflation data.
When is the next US inflation report?
The US consumer price index for October is released on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 16:30 Mecca time.
What is the US Dollar Index now?
On the TNFX MT5 feed the US Dollar Index is at 101.84. It has moved −0.43% over 24 hours and +0.49% over five days.
How strong is the naira against the dollar?
Central Bank of Nigeria data show the naira at 1,346.79 per dollar on 6 November 2026, about 6.3% stronger than a year earlier. Reserves stood at $55.133 billion.
Does a weaker dollar push gold higher?
Often it does, because gold is priced in dollars. On Monday gold moved +1.24% to $4,120.28 on our feed, but bets on a Fed hike can still weigh on it.