Oil had another volatile week. On Thursday 12 November US President Donald Trump wrote that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, and oil jumped. On the same day Iran's military said four tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz, and Yemen's Houthis said they attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. Pulling the other way, Saudi Arabia reported its highest output since February and US crude stocks rose. Early on Friday 13 November prices slipped, and oil was set for a second weekly decline. On our MT5 feed Brent (UKOIL) is at $98.28, +3.50% over 24 hours.
What happened
The war that began when the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February 2026 is now in its ninth month, and the United States keeps a blockade on Iran's oil shipments. These are the events that moved oil in the last three days. Iranian and Houthi claims are marked as claims:
OPEC's monthly report shows Saudi Arabia told the group it pumped 10.563 million barrels a day in October, up 26% from 8.372 million in September and its highest since February. Secondary sources in the same report put total OPEC+ crude output at 41.23 million barrels a day, up 2.04 million from September.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy says two supertankers were disabled by explosions after ignoring warnings not to use what it calls an "unauthorised" southern route; Iranian state media said they hit naval mines. This has not been independently verified. Separately, UKMTO reported that a vessel leaving the strait was hit by an unidentified projectile about 14 nautical miles north-west of Ras Al Khaimah, UAE, causing an engine-room fire.
Trump writes on social media: "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed." He adds that the US has Iran's money and "their Strait", and says he has asked Vice President JD Vance to focus on crime and corruption in Democrat-run cities and states. Oil jumps.
Iran's army says two more tankers hit mines in the eastern part of the strait after ignoring warnings and switching off their radar, and caught fire. Iran's military puts the total at four tankers. Not independently verified.
Yemen's Houthis say they attacked a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, an oil facility in Yanbu on the Red Sea and an Aramco building in Riyadh. The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted and destroyed two drones, one in the Riyadh region and one in the Eastern Province. Saudi Arabia did not immediately comment on the claims.
The US Energy Information Administration reports that commercial crude stocks rose 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million in the week to 6 November. Gasoline rose 1.8 million and distillates 4.1 million barrels; total commercial petroleum stocks rose 11.4 million barrels.
Prices slip in Asian trade. Markets read Trump's post as a sign that Washington will keep the blockade and sanctions rather than return to large-scale fighting, and oil heads for a second weekly decline after a steep fall the week before.
Why the East-West pipeline matters
With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted by the war, Saudi Arabia has rerouted about 4 million barrels a day of crude through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, roughly 4% of world supply. The pipeline is the kingdom's main way to export oil without passing through Hormuz.
The Houthis have attacked it repeatedly. On Monday 9 November Saudi Arabia said an attack had started a fire on the pipeline but had not affected operations. A confirmed hit that cuts flows would be a much larger supply event than the tanker incidents in the strait.
Two forces pulling oil in opposite directions
Supply is coming back. Saudi output is close to pre-war levels, OPEC+ pumped about 2 million barrels a day more in October than in September, and US stocks rose across crude, gasoline and distillates. These barrels have pushed oil lower over the past two weeks.
The war risk has not gone. Tankers are still being hit despite a rebound in traffic, Iran calls a southern route through the strait unauthorised, and the higher Gulf flows depend partly on US military protection for tankers. Trump's post on Thursday also removed hopes of a quick deal. That is why oil jumped quickly after the post, and why each incident still adds a risk premium.
Oil and gold on our feed
Brent (UKOIL) is at $98.28 on our MT5 feed, +3.50% over 24 hours and −2.07% over five days, in a range of $91.77 to $101.21. US crude (USOIL) is at $88.80, +2.54% over 24 hours.
Gold (XAUUSD) moved −1.94% over 24 hours to $3,899.91.
Brent, WTI and gold side by side over the same five days:
Scenarios
- Escalation: if a pipeline or tanker attack is confirmed to cut Saudi or Gulf exports, or if the US answers Iran with new strikes, oil may rise sharply and could gap at Monday's open.
- Holding pattern: if claims continue but exports keep flowing under the blockade, markets may keep weighing extra Saudi and OPEC+ barrels against the war premium, and oil may stay volatile inside its recent range.
- De-escalation: if talks between Washington and Tehran restart despite Trump's post, part of the war premium may come out of oil.
What to watch next
- Friday's US session and the weekly close: whether oil confirms a second weekly fall.
- Monday's open: weekend events in the Gulf are traded for the first time, so oil can open with a gap.
- Saudi statements on the East-West pipeline and Yanbu, and any further Houthi attacks.
- Shipping notices from UKMTO and statements from US Central Command on incidents in the strait.
- Iran's answer to Trump's post, and any sign that back-channel talks continue.
- Next week's US inventory data: another stock build would add to the supply story.
Trading oil at TNFX
Brent (UKOIL), WTI (USOIL) and gold (XAUUSD) are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around news like this spreads can widen and prices can gap, so use stop-losses and size positions for the risk. See the Brent and WTI pages for live prices.
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Common questions
Why did oil prices jump on 12 November 2026?
Because US President Donald Trump wrote on social media that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, which dimmed hopes of an end to the war. On the same day Iran said four tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis said they attacked Saudi oil facilities.
What did Trump say about a deal with Iran?
He wrote: "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed." He said the US has Iran's money and its Strait, and asked Vice President JD Vance to focus on crime and corruption in Democrat-run cities and states instead.
Did the Houthis hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline?
The Houthis say they attacked a pumping station on the pipeline, an oil facility in Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh on 12 November. The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted two drones. Saudi Arabia did not immediately comment on the claims.
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
Ships are still passing and traffic has rebounded, but tankers are still being hit. Iran says vessels using a southern route it calls unauthorised are hitting mines; those claims have not been independently verified.
Why is oil heading for a second weekly fall?
Supply is recovering: Saudi Arabia told OPEC its October output rose 26% to 10.563 million barrels a day, OPEC+ output rose by 2.04 million barrels a day, and US crude stocks rose 4.7 million barrels. Markets also read the continued US blockade as a lower risk of large-scale fighting.
What is the Brent oil price now?
On the TNFX MT5 feed Brent is at $98.28, +3.50% over 24 hours and −2.07% over five days. WTI is at $88.80.
What could move oil next?
Monday's open after the weekend, any confirmed damage to Saudi export routes, new tanker incidents in Hormuz, Iran's answer to Trump, and next week's US inventory data.