Oil fell sharply on Monday 9 November 2026 as traders bet that the US–Iran war is moving towards a deal. On Sunday, President Donald Trump said new US strikes on Iran were unlikely while talks continue. Oil fell even though Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy confirmed an attack on its East-West oil pipeline, and ships near the Strait of Hormuz were attacked again over the weekend. Brent is at $94.06 on our MT5 feed, −5.84% in 24 hours, while US natural gas and stock indices rose.
What happened
The war between the United States and Iran began in February 2026. Since the US mid-term elections on 3 November, talk of a deal has moved oil more than the attacks have. These are the key events. Claims are marked as claims:
Oil falls sharply after Democrats win control of Congress, as traders bet that the war could end sooner.
Brent ends the week with its steepest weekly fall since 2020, on bets of a US–Iran settlement.
President Trump confirms a new US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, which he calls "minor".
Ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz are attacked again.
Trump says new US strikes on Iran are unlikely if the talks produce a strong agreement. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the two sides are not close to a breakthrough and calls some of Iran's demands unacceptable.
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy says its East-West oil pipeline was targeted in the Medina region. A limited fire was put out. Nobody was hurt and the pipeline kept operating. Oil falls anyway.
Israeli warplanes and artillery strike towns across southern Lebanon, Lebanese reports say.
Where the talks stand
Iran says its offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days still stands, if the United States accepts its terms. Iran has called the cut in that timetable, from seven days to two, a sign of goodwill.
Washington is sending mixed signals. Trump talks of progress and says further strikes are unlikely. Rubio says Iran's demands are far from acceptable. Several reports of a near-final deal have appeared in the past week, but neither government has confirmed any terms. Until a text is signed, every headline can move oil sharply in either direction.
Why the Saudi pipeline matters
The East-West pipeline carries Saudi crude across the kingdom to the Red Sea coast. It lets Saudi Arabia export oil without using the Strait of Hormuz, which has made it one of the most important oil routes in the world since the war began.
Monday's attack did not disrupt the flow, so the market looked past it. A strike that stopped the flow would be different, because it would hit one of the few routes that avoid Hormuz.
Gas through Hormuz is recovering
Shipping data show that 31 loaded LNG tankers left the Strait of Hormuz in October. That is the highest monthly count since the conflict began. 23 of these tankers were loaded at Ras Laffan in Qatar. In September the count was 19.
Traffic is still far below normal pre-war levels. Qatar and the UAE ship their LNG through the strait, so every extra cargo matters for gas prices in Asia and Europe this winter.
Oil, gas and stocks on our feed
Brent (UKOIL) is at $94.06 on our MT5 feed: −5.84% in 24 hours and −3.81% over five days, in a range between $93.39 and $104.12. US crude (USOIL) is at $85.98, −4.96% in 24 hours.
Not every oil price fell. Physical Gulf crude rose in Asian trading on Monday. This suggests that buyers in the region still want oil for quick delivery, while futures prices are betting on a deal.
US natural gas (NGAS) went the other way, rising +7.00% to $3.0250. Stock indices also rose: the S&P 500 (US500) gained +2.24% and Germany's DAX (GER30) +2.98%.
Brent, WTI, US natural gas and the S&P 500 side by side over the same five days:
Scenarios
- Deal confirmed: if Washington and Tehran confirm terms that reopen Hormuz, markets may take more of the war premium out of oil, and stock indices may extend gains.
- Talks drag on: if talks continue without a text and attacks stay limited, oil may keep swinging on each headline inside its recent range.
- Escalation: if an attack stops the flow through the Saudi pipeline or hits major shipping in Hormuz, or if the talks collapse, oil may jump quickly and prices may open with a gap.
What to watch next
- Statements from the White House and Tehran: only an official confirmation of terms would turn deal hopes into a deal.
- Iran's two-day Hormuz offer: any timetable for reopening the strait.
- Saudi energy infrastructure: new attacks on pipelines or ports, and whether oil flows are hit.
- Shipping in Hormuz: oil tanker and LNG tanker traffic, and any new attacks on ships.
- Lebanon: Israeli strikes in the south, and whether the fighting spreads.
- US inflation data: oil prices feed into inflation expectations and bets on the Federal Reserve.
Trading oil and gas at TNFX
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Common questions
Why did oil prices fall on 9 November 2026?
Traders bet on a US–Iran deal after President Trump said on 8 November that new US strikes on Iran were unlikely while talks continue. Oil fell even though a Saudi pipeline was attacked the same day.
Was the Saudi East-West pipeline damaged?
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy said the pipeline was targeted in the Medina region on 9 November. A limited fire was put out. Nobody was hurt and operations were not disrupted.
Is there a deal between the US and Iran?
No deal has been confirmed. Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the United States accepts its terms. Trump talks of progress, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the sides are not close to a breakthrough.
What is the Brent oil price now?
On the TNFX MT5 feed Brent is at $94.06, −5.84% in 24 hours and −3.81% over five days.
Is LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz again?
Yes, but slowly. 31 loaded LNG tankers left the strait in October, the most in any month since the war began. Traffic is still far below pre-war levels.
What could make oil rise again?
Oil could rise quickly if the talks collapse, if an attack stops the flow through the Saudi pipeline, or if major shipping in Hormuz is hit again.