TNFX Research holds a bearish bias on gold into the 28 Oct 2026 FOMC. With a second Fed hike priced at roughly 70–77% and the US 10-year yield above 5.2%, rebounds into 4,290–4,326 are likely to meet sellers; a daily close below 4,110.80 opens 4,024.99, then the 3,959.61 60-day low.
This week: Two-way trade around Friday's NFP (2 Oct 2026, 15:30 Mecca), where gold's two-hour range has typically been about $79. Sellers are favoured below the weekly R1 at 4,290.19; losing 4,110.80 opens the 1-week sigma floor near 4,031.
End of October: Bearish tilt into the 28 Oct 2026 FOMC: the base case settles near the weekly S1 at 4,024.99 by 30 Oct 2026. Only a clear drop in hike odds would lift gold back above the 20-day SMA at 4,326.18.
Key levels
Resistance
- R14,222.81
- R24,290.19
- R34,326.18
Support
- S14,110.80
- S24,024.99
- S33,959.61
Scenarios
- Trigger
- NFP on 2 Oct 2026 well below the +90k consensus with unemployment above 4.1%, followed by a soft CPI on 14 Oct 2026
- Target
- 4,399.61
Second-hike odds fall back, gold reclaims the 20-day SMA at 4,326.18 and retests the 4,399.61 swing high.
- Trigger
- Data broadly in line; second-hike odds stay around 70–77% into the 28 Oct 2026 FOMC
- Target
- 4,024.99
Rebounds stall under 4,290–4,326, the 4,110.80 20-day low gives way and gold grinds down to the weekly S1 at 4,024.99.
- Trigger
- A payrolls beat plus a hot September CPI push a 28 Oct 2026 hike toward fully priced and the 10-year yield climbs further above 5.2%
- Target
- 3,935.29
A break of the 3,959.61 60-day low accelerates selling toward the weekly S2 at 3,935.29.
What drives it
- The Fed hiked on 16 Sep 2026 and markets price a second 25bp move on 28 Oct 2026 at roughly 70–77%
- The US 10-year yield is above 5.2%, the highest since June 2007, which raises the cost of holding non-yielding gold
- Energy-led inflation (August CPI 3.4%, energy +16.3% y/y) keeps the Fed on its hiking path
- Price is below both the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, and this week is tracking the lowest weekly close since the 4,696.92 peak
- Gold is about 26% below its January record and trades mostly on Fed-hike odds
Dates to watch
US jobs report (NFP, September), 15:30 MeccaThe only payrolls report before the FOMC. Consensus is +90k; a miss toward the +35k low end would likely cut hike odds and support gold
US CPI (September)August CPI was 3.4% with energy +16.3%; another hot print would keep a second hike firmly priced
FOMC decisionA second 25bp hike is priced at roughly 70–77%; the statement tone sets gold's direction into month-end
Technical picture
Below the converged 20-day (4,326.18) and 50-day (4,321.20) SMAs after a 4.45% five-day drop; RSI 38.8 is weak but not oversold. ATR14 is 95.93 (2.3%), a wide tape. 4,110.80 (20-day low) is the line buyers must hold.
What would change our view
A payrolls miss near the +35k low end with unemployment above 4.1%, or a soft CPI on 14 Oct 2026, would cut hike odds; a daily close above 4,326.18 invalidates the bearish call.