The Mexican peso weakened against the US dollar on Tuesday 3 November 2026, as Americans voted in the midterm elections that decide control of Congress. The move gave back part of Monday's rally, which was the peso's best day since April. Late on Monday, a US official said the United States had carried out "defensive" strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to the caution. The next big test for the peso comes on Thursday 5 November, when the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) decides on its 6.50% policy rate. On our MT5 feed USD/MXN stands at 18.83, with the dollar up +1.39% against the peso over 24 hours.
What happened
USD/MXN shows how many pesos one US dollar buys. When the number rises, the peso is weaker. These are the key events of the last few days:
Mexico's statistics office (INEGI) said its flash estimate showed the economy grew 0.9% in the third quarter from the second, and 3.2% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace in three years. The same day the peso touched its weakest level against the dollar in more than a year. It ended October with a second monthly loss in a row and an eighth weekly loss in a row, based on Bank of Mexico data.
The peso had its best day since April, as buyers returned after the strong growth figure.
A US official said the United States carried out "defensive" strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television reported explosions on Qeshm Island.
Americans vote for the whole House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate. The peso started the day firm, then lost ground through the Mexico City session. By the evening in Mecca time, the dollar was trading near its high of the day against the peso.
Why the US midterms matter for the peso
The United States is Mexico's largest trading partner, so the peso is one of the currencies most exposed to policy in Washington. The vote decides which party controls the House and the Senate for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term.
Analysts point to two channels. The first is trade: a Congress that is divided or controlled by the opposition would find it harder to pass new tariff laws, although the president keeps wide powers over tariffs on his own. The second is US interest rates: results that raise expectations of more government borrowing could push US bond yields and the dollar higher.
Counting can be slow. In close races, final results may take days, which can keep the peso volatile for the rest of the week.
Banxico decides on Thursday
The Bank of Mexico cut its policy rate to 6.50% on 7 May 2026 and has held it at three meetings since then. It announces its next decision on Thursday 5 November. Most analysts expect no change, although some see room for a cut.
The decision matters because of the carry trade. Investors borrow in low-yield currencies and buy pesos to earn Mexico's higher interest rate. The US Federal Reserve raised its rate by 0.25 percentage points in September, which narrowed that gap and made the peso less attractive. A Banxico cut would narrow it further; a hold with a firm tone could support the peso.
The peso on our feed
On our MT5 feed USD/MXN is at 18.83: the dollar rose +1.39% against the peso over 24 hours and moved −0.07% over five days. The 5-day range runs from 18.37 to 18.92.
The chart shows the peso's rebound after the GDP data and Tuesday's reversal on election day.
The peso against another high-yield emerging currency, the South African rand, and the broad US dollar index over the same five days. The dollar moved +0.19% against the rand over 24 hours, and the dollar index moved +0.11%:
Scenarios for the coming days
- Clear result, calm markets: if the outcome is known quickly and US bond yields stay steady, part of Tuesday's risk premium may come out of USD/MXN and the peso may recover.
- Contested or slow count: if key races stay open for days, caution may keep the peso under pressure and USD/MXN near its recent highs.
- Higher US yields: if the result raises expectations of more US borrowing, or Friday's jobs report is strong, the dollar may gain against the peso.
- Banxico surprise: a rate cut on Thursday could weaken the peso; a hold with a cautious tone could support it.
What to watch next
- Wednesday 4 November: US polls close in waves from 02:00 Mecca time; the last close in the far west around 09:00. Results reach the market during the Asian session.
- Thursday 5 November: the Bank of Mexico's rate decision and statement.
- Friday 6 November, 16:30 Mecca time: the US jobs report for October.
- Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: any new strikes, and any Iranian reply, can lift the dollar and hit high-yield currencies such as the peso.
- Trade signals from Washington and Mexico City on tariffs and the North American trade pact.
Trading the peso at TNFX
USD/MXN and EUR/MXN are available as CFDs on MT4 and MT5, long or short. Around election results and central bank decisions, spreads can widen and prices can jump, so use stop-losses and size positions for the risk. See our USD/MXN page for live prices.
Follow the peso on MT5
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Common questions
Why is the Mexican peso falling today?
On 3 November 2026 the peso gave back part of Monday's rally as investors turned cautious during the US midterm elections, with geopolitical risk added after US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz late on 2 November.
How do the US midterm elections affect the Mexican peso?
The vote decides control of Congress. That shapes US trade, tax and spending policy, and US interest rates. Because the United States is Mexico's largest trading partner, the peso reacts strongly to any change in that outlook.
When is the next Banxico rate decision?
Thursday 5 November 2026. The policy rate is 6.50%, where it has been since 7 May 2026. Most analysts expect no change.
What is the dollar to peso rate now?
On the TNFX MT5 feed USD/MXN is at 18.83, a move of +1.39% over 24 hours and −0.07% over five days.
Did Mexico's economy grow in the third quarter of 2026?
Yes. INEGI's flash estimate showed growth of 0.9% from the second quarter and 3.2% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace in three years.
When will the US election results be known?
Polls close in waves from 02:00 Mecca time on Wednesday 4 November, and the last close around 09:00. Many races are called overnight, but close races can take days.