Gold closed the week on Friday 30 October at $3,875.05 after losing $146.12 (−3.63%) in a single day. It touched $3,870.14 at 22:45 Mecca time, its lowest price since 3 October 2025. Three pressures met within 48 hours: a Fed edging towards a December hike, US data stronger than expected, and a tech-stock sell-off that pushed investors to sell gold for cash. On this page: what happened hour by hour on an interactive chart, the causes in numbers, the one-year picture and three scenarios for next week.
What happened? Three days on one chart
The chart shows 15-minute candles from Wednesday to Friday. The markers show the key moments:
The Fed holds rates at 3.75–4.00%, but two members vote for a 0.25% hike. Chair Kevin Warsh says "economic activity is expanding at a strong pace" and "inflation remains elevated."
Gold at its two-day high: $4,068.81.
US Q3 GDP grows 3.4% against a 3.2% forecast, and PCE inflation rises 0.5% in September to 3.6% y/y. Markets price a December hike at about 83%.
Gold breaks $4,000 as Asia opens and keeps slipping.
Before Wall Street opens at 16:30 gold breaks $3,950; with the tech sell-off it breaks $3,900 at 17:15.
The low: $3,870.14, the lowest since 3 October 2025. The week closes at $3,875.05.
Why did gold fall? Five reasons
- US rates may rise in December. The Fed held on Wednesday, but two votes for a hike and the chair's tone made markets price a hike at the 8–9 December meeting at about 83%. Gold pays no interest, so when expected rates rise, holding it costs more than holding bonds or dollar deposits.
- US data beat expectations. The economy grew 3.4% in Q3 (forecast 3.2%, Q2 2.2%), PCE inflation rose to 3.6% y/y and core to 3.1%. A strong economy with high inflation gives the Fed another reason to hike.
- Selling for cash. The Nasdaq fell 2.4% on Friday and the S&P 500 1.3%. When stocks drop hard, some investors sell their winners to cover margin, and gold is one of the easiest assets to sell, so it fell with stocks instead of rising as a safe haven.
- Silver led the fall. Silver lost 5.8% on Friday to $49.09 and touched $48.84, its lowest this year. When the metals fall together, gold selling speeds up.
- Not even Hormuz saved gold. An oil tanker was hit by explosive devices in the Strait of Hormuz, with no one claiming responsibility, and Brent rose as high as $118.80 during the day. Gold usually gains from tension, but dearer oil means higher inflation and higher rates, which outweighed gold's safe-haven role.
The chart compares Friday's moves against Thursday's close: gold, silver and stocks fell together; only oil rose.
The bigger picture: a full year on the chart
Gold peaked at $5,598.32 on 29 January 2026 and has lost 30.8% since. In October alone it fell 6.85% (from $4,159.90). The price is now below its 50-day ($4,254.60), 100-day ($4,213.48) and 200-day ($4,491.03) averages, so the broad trend is down. But the daily RSI is 29.3, below the 30 line that marks "oversold", which is often followed by a temporary bounce.
What next? Three scenarios for next week
These are our estimates, not advice. The odds are the TNFX team's view of each scenario's relative likelihood and change with the news.
Technical bounce40%
If $3,850 support holds: a move towards $3,943 then $3,975, maybe a test of $4,000. Driver: oversold conditions and short covering before the jobs data.
Range until the jobs data35%
Trading between $3,850 and $3,975 until the midterm results and the jobs report on Friday 6 November.
Further fall25%
A daily close below $3,850 opens $3,800 then $3,750. Driver: strong jobs data lifting hike odds, or a new equity sell-off.
| Level | Type | Why |
|---|---|---|
| $4,000 | Resistance | Round number broken at 04:00 on Friday |
| $3,975 | Resistance | Broken at 10:45 on Friday |
| $3,943 | Resistance | Last level before the sell-off at the Wall Street open |
| $3,850–3,880 | Support | Where gold steadied near Friday's $3,870 low |
| $3,800 | Support | Round number and next support if Friday's low breaks |
Next week's calendar (Mecca time)
US clocks go back one hour on Sunday 1 November, so from next week US data comes out at 16:30 Mecca time instead of 15:30.
US ISM manufacturing PMI for October.
US midterm elections; results come in through the early hours of Wednesday, Mecca time.
ADP private payrolls, then the ISM services PMI.
US jobs report (NFP) for October, the week's biggest event for gold. Follow it live on the NFP page.
The next Fed meeting, where markets expect a hike.
Video: gold's fall in 60 seconds
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Common questions
Why did gold fall on 30 October 2026?
Three main reasons: markets expect the Fed to hike in December (about 83% odds) after strong growth and inflation data, a tech-stock sell-off pushed investors to sell gold for cash, and silver's 5.8% drop sped up selling across metals.
How low did gold go?
$3,870.14 at 22:45 Mecca time on Friday 30 October 2026, the lowest since 3 October 2025. The week closed at $3,875.05.
Will gold rise again?
Nobody knows for sure. The RSI is oversold, which favours a technical bounce if $3,850 holds, but a break of that support opens $3,800. We put the odds at 40% bounce, 35% range and 25% further fall.
What are the key support and resistance levels?
Support: $3,850–3,880, then $3,800. Resistance: $3,943, then $3,975, then $4,000.
When is the next US jobs report?
Friday 6 November 2026 at 16:30 Mecca time.