3As expected35–40%
- IfCore PCE 0.3%
- andGDP 2.0–3.5%
Then
Gold≈ ±$20
Dollar≈ steady
US stocks≈ flat
Confirms what is priced: December stays live, no shock.
Core PCE rose +0.3% in September (3.1% on the year) against a +0.3% forecast: in line with the forecast. Headline PCE was 3.6% on the year and Q3 growth came in at 3.4% annualised. The scenario that happened is marked first below.
If the number is… then gold and the dollar
Six scenarios from core PCE (month) and Q3 growth. The odds are our estimate from the forecasts and the Cleveland Fed nowcast (+0.28%); the reactions are the usual first move, not a promise.
1Hot inflation20–25%
- IfCore PCE ≥ 0.4%
- andGDP ≥ 2.0%
Then
Gold▼ 1–2%
Dollar▲ stronger
US stocks▼ lower
A December hike becomes the clear base case; yields jump.
2Stagflation~5%
- IfCore PCE ≥ 0.3%
- andGDP below 2.0%
Then
Gold▲ safe-haven bid
Dollar≈ mixed
US stocks▼ lower
Prices still rising while growth stalls — the Fed's hardest mix.
4Overheating10–15%
- IfCore PCE 0.3%
- andGDP above 3.5%
Then
Gold▼ 0.5–1%
Dollar▲ stronger
US stocks≈ mixed
A strong economy gives the Fed room to hike.
5Cooler15–20%
- IfCore PCE 0.2%
Then
Gold▲ 0.5–1%
Dollar▼ weaker
US stocks▲ higher
Relief: December hike odds slip.
6Cold≤5%
- IfCore PCE ≤ 0.1%
Then
Gold▲ 1–2%
Dollar▼ sharply
US stocks▲ higher
The inflation scare fades; a December hike is in doubt.
The result
Published by the BEA at 15:30 Mecca time.
Core PCE, month+0.3% · Forecast +0.3% — in line with the forecast
Core PCE, year3.1% · Forecast 3.1%
PCE (headline), year3.6% · Forecast 3.7%
GDP Q3, annualised3.4% · Forecast 2.8%
Gold, first hour+$0.67 (+0.0%)
Scenario✔ THIS HAPPENED As expected: core 0.3%, GDP 2–3.5%
Why today's PCE matters
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the inflation measure the Fed's 2% target is written in. The Fed watches the core figure, without food and energy, because it shows the trend.
Last night the Fed kept rates at 3.75–4.00% with a 10–2 vote — two members wanted a hike — and Chair Warsh said: “we haven't achieved price stability… but we're working on it.” Markets now lean towards a hike on 9 December. Today's number is the first big test of that bet.
Core PCE was 3.0% a year in August — still far above 2%. September CPI ran hot, so several banks raised their PCE forecasts (TD Securities to +0.36% on the month).
The numbers expected
Forecast and previous reading for each figure. The month-on-month core number moves markets most.
| Figure | Forecast | Previous | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE, month | +0.3% | +0.2% | Cleveland Fed nowcast +0.28%; TD +0.36% |
| Core PCE, year | 3.1% | 3.0% | Fed target 2% |
| PCE, month | +0.5% | +0.3% | Energy pushes the headline up |
| PCE, year | 3.7% | 3.4% | Highest since the spring if it lands |
| GDP Q3 (annualised) | 2.8% | 2.2% | Forecasts 2.5–3.5%; GDPNow 3.5% |
Today, hour by hour (Mecca time)
15:30
PCE and GDP are released together by the BEA.
15:30–16:30
The first move: gold and the dollar react within seconds; the first hour usually sets the direction.
16:30
Wall Street opens — a second wave of moves is common.
9 December
The next Fed decision. Today's numbers feed the hike odds.
Gold right now
Our own MT5 feed, last 7 days. Gold was $4,038 at the Fed decision and $4,050 after the press conference.
$4,0927-day high
$3,9767-day low
$4,027Last
Gold4,027▼ −1.54% 7 days
Q3 growth: the second number
Q2 grew 2.2% (annualised). For Q3 the trackers range from 2.5% to 3.5%: the New York Fed nowcast 2.7%, Continuum Economics 2.8%, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow 3.5%. Trade is the swing factor.
Strong growth with firm inflation (scenario 4) supports a hike; weak growth with firm inflation (scenario 2) is the stagflation case, where gold often rises even as stocks fall.
Other markets, 7 days
Hourly closes from our MT5 feed.
USD/JPY158.03▲ +0.73% 7 days
EUR/USD1.11428▼ −0.69% 7 days
S&P 5007,733▲ +0.56% 7 days
Nasdaq 10029,546▲ +0.59% 7 days
Dow Jones52,566▼ −0.03% 7 days
WTI oil102.06▲ +1.94% 7 days
Bitcoin80,202▼ −2.29% 7 days
What we are watching
- Core PCE month-on-month: 0.3% is priced in; 0.4% or 0.2% moves markets.
- Revisions to August — a revision can matter as much as the new month.
- US 2-year yields and the dollar in the first minutes.
- Gold around $4,050, last night's level.
News content, not investment advice. Trading CFDs involves high risk; you can lose all of your capital.
Sources
- BEA release schedule: Personal Income and Outlays (Sep) and GDP advance (Q3), 29 Oct 8:30 ET
- BEA: GDP third estimate, Q2 2026 (2.2%)
- Trading Economics: August PCE (core +0.2% m/m, 3.0% y/y; headline 3.4%)
- Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast (Sep core PCE +0.28% m/m, 3.05% y/y)
- Continuum Economics preview: core PCE +0.3%, Q3 GDP 2.8%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3: 3.5%, 20 Oct)
- New York Fed Staff Nowcast (Q3: 2.7%)
Common questions
What is PCE?
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, published monthly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Fed's 2% inflation target is defined on it.
What is the difference between PCE and CPI?
Both measure US inflation. CPI comes earlier in the month; PCE covers more spending and is the gauge the Fed targets, so it often decides the Fed's tone. The next CPI is in mid-November.
When is it released?
Thursday 29 October 2026 at 15:30 Mecca time (8:30 New York), together with the first estimate of Q3 GDP.
How does PCE move gold?
A hotter number raises the odds of a Fed hike, which usually lifts the dollar and pushes gold down; a cooler number tends to do the opposite. See the six scenarios above.
When is the next Fed decision?
9 December 2026. Last night the Fed held at 3.75–4.00%.