TNFX Research is bearish on silver. It fell 8.93% in five sessions, about twice gold's drop, and trades below both key moving averages as markets price a second Fed hike. Bounces into 62.91–63.87 are likely to meet supply; a close under 60.27 opens 58.29 and the 56.54 swing low.
This week: Rallies are likely to fade under the 50-day SMA at 63.87. NFP on 2 Oct 2026 (15:30 Mecca) is the swing event; a close below the 60.27 20-day low exposes the 1-week sigma floor at 57.65.
End of October: Base case: silver ends October near the weekly S1 at 58.29 as Fed-hike odds hold into 28 Oct 2026. Higher beta than gold means a hawkish FOMC could stretch losses to the 54.75 60-day low.
Key levels
Resistance
- R162.91
- R263.87
- R364.70
Support
- S160.27
- S258.29
- S356.54
Scenarios
- Trigger
- A soft NFP on 2 Oct 2026 and/or a soft CPI on 14 Oct 2026 trims Fed-hike odds
- Target
- 67.45
A relief rally lifts silver back over the 20-day SMA at 64.70 toward the 67.45 swing high.
- Trigger
- Second-hike odds hold near 70–77% and gold stays capped below its moving averages
- Target
- 58.29
Rallies fade under 62.91–63.87, the 60.27 low breaks and silver settles near the weekly S1 at 58.29.
- Trigger
- Strong payrolls plus a hot CPI lift yields further and gold breaks below its own 20-day low
- Target
- 54.75
Silver's higher beta accelerates the decline through the 56.54 swing low to the 60-day low at 54.75.
What drives it
- A second Fed hike on 28 Oct 2026 is priced at roughly 70–77%, a headwind for precious metals
- The US 10-year yield above 5.2% raises the opportunity cost of holding metals
- Silver's five-day loss of 8.93% is about double gold's 4.45%, confirming its high-beta downside
- Price is below the 20-day (64.70) and 50-day (63.87) SMAs, with the 60.27 20-day low under test
- Rallies keep stalling lower since the 71.15 60-day high: 68.30, then 67.52 on 22 Sep 2026
Dates to watch
US jobs report (NFP, September), 15:30 MeccaThe only payrolls report before the FOMC; with ATR at 3.95% of price versus gold's 2.3%, silver's reaction can be the larger of the two
US CPI (September)A hot energy-led print would reinforce the hawkish Fed path and weigh on metals
FOMC decisionA second hike is priced at roughly 70–77%; guidance on further moves decides whether silver's slide extends
Technical picture
Below the 20-day (64.70) and 50-day (63.87) SMAs after an 8.93% five-day slide; RSI 40.0. ATR14 is 2.41 (3.95%), well above gold's 2.3%, so moves can overshoot. Price is testing the 60.27 20-day low.
What would change our view
A soft NFP or CPI that pulls Fed-hike odds lower could spark a sharp relief rally; a daily close above the 20-day SMA at 64.70 would invalidate the bearish view.