TNFX Research is bullish the Nasdaq 100 into the 28 Oct 2026 FOMC. Tech has led through the Fed's 16 Sep 2026 hike, up 4.4% in 20 days, and is consolidating just 1.5% below its 60-day high of 30,844.80. Holding the 29,761 20-day SMA keeps a retest and break of that high in play; a 10-year above 5.2% is the main threat.
This week: The dip-buying bias holds while price stays above the 20-day SMA (29,761). The 30,433 weekly pivot is the first hurdle; the jobs report on 2 Oct 2026 (15:30 Mecca) could stretch the move to the 31,035 1-sigma edge.
End of October: Base case ends October at or near the 60-day high (30,845), with an upside tail to last + 3×ATR (31,729). A close below the 50-day SMA (29,393) would break the pattern.
Key levels
Resistance
- R130,433.18
- R230,844.80
- R331,154.48
Support
- S130,266.65
- S229,760.59
- S329,392.94
Scenarios
- Trigger
- Daily close above the 60-day high at 30,844.80 plus a cooler CPI on 14 Oct 2026
- Target
- 31,729.31
A breakout could clear the 31,154 weekly R2 and extend to last + 3×ATR near 31,729 into the FOMC.
- Trigger
- Pullbacks hold the 29,760.59 20-day SMA and the 28 Oct 2026 hike is delivered as priced
- Target
- 30,844.80
Consolidation above the 30,267 breakout level resolves higher, with a retest of the 60-day high by end-October.
- Trigger
- Hot CPI or hawkish FOMC guidance lifts the 10-year further above 5.2%; daily close below 29,392.94
- Target
- 28,772.00
Long-duration tech de-rates and gives back the post-hike rally, back to the 16 Sep 2026 low at 28,772.
What drives it
- Relative strength: +4.4% in 20 days vs +0.4% for the S&P 500 and −2.8% for the Dow.
- The 30,844.80 60-day high was set on 23 Sep 2026; the pullback is shallow (−1.5%) and daily closes hold above the prior 30,267 swing high.
- The Fed hike cycle (3.75–4.00%, second hike about 70–77% priced) has not stopped the index, which rallied from 28,772 after the 16 Sep 2026 hike.
- Key headwind: a US 10-year above 5.2%, the highest since June 2007, weighs most on long-duration growth stocks.
Dates to watch
US jobs report (NFP, September), 15:30 MeccaThe only payrolls report before the 28 Oct 2026 FOMC; consensus +90k. A soft-to-inline print keeps the dip-buying structure intact; a hot wage number would likely lift yields.
US CPI (September)August CPI was 3.4% y/y with energy +16.3%; a cooler print is the likeliest trigger for a break of the 60-day high, a hot one the main downside risk.
FOMC decisionA second 25bp hike is about 70–77% priced; the guidance on further hikes matters most for rate-sensitive tech.
Technical picture
Uptrend: last 30,379 above the 20-day (29,761) and 50-day (29,393) SMAs, with the 20-day over the 50-day. RSI(14) 59.4 has room before overbought. ATR(14) 450 pts (1.48%); 1-week 1-sigma band 29,738–31,035.
What would change our view
A daily close below the 50-day SMA at 29,392.94 would invalidate the bullish call; a hot CPI on 14 Oct 2026 that pushes the 10-year further above 5.2% is the likeliest trigger.