Ethereum is up 44.6% in 60 days, outpacing Bitcoin, and is holding a 2,621-2,781 range above all key averages. TNFX Research favours an upside break toward 2,800 and 2,852 while the SMA20 at 2,597 holds, though a hawkish Fed path remains the key risk.
This week: Upside bias; a push through 2,734 (weekly R1) opens 2,800. NFP on 2 Oct is the swing factor.
End of October: Base case: a retest of 2,800 by 31 Oct. A daily close below the SMA50 at 2,412 would end the uptrend.
Key levels
Resistance
- R12,734.00
- R22,800.00
- R32,852.00
Support
- S12,619.00
- S22,597.00
- S32,412.00
Scenarios
- Trigger
- Soft NFP and CPI trim Fed hike odds; crypto demand broadens
- Target
- 3,062.00
A breakout above 2,852 extends toward 3,062 (last + 4x ATR).
- Trigger
- US data broadly in line; risk appetite holds into the 28 Oct FOMC
- Target
- 2,800.00
Holds above 2,597 and retests the 2,800 September high.
- Trigger
- Hot US data lift yields and crypto sells off
- Target
- 2,351.00
Loss of 2,597 and 2,519 opens the 2,351 20-day low.
What drives it
- Up 44.6% in 60 days, outpacing Bitcoin's 32.6%
- Holding 2,621-2,781 since 23 Sep after the 2,800 spike
- Fed hike cycle and 10-year above 5.2% cap the upside
- Higher volatility than Bitcoin: ATR 3.56% of price
Dates to watch
US jobs report (NFP), 15:30 MeccaSets Fed-hike odds; a soft print would favour a break above 2,734.
US CPI (September)A hot, energy-driven print would lift yields and test the 2,597 SMA20.
FOMC decisionThe hike is ~70-77% priced; the guidance on further hikes decides the next leg.
Technical picture
Above SMA20 (2,597), SMA50 (2,412) and SMA100 (2,106). RSI 62.4 is positive with room to run. ATR14 95 (3.56%), so daily swings near $95 are normal.
What would change our view
A daily close below the SMA20 at 2,597 after a hot NFP or CPI would expose 2,412 (SMA50) and void the bullish view.