Bitcoin is up 32.6% in 60 days and trades above its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages despite Fed hikes and a 10-year yield above 5.2%. TNFX Research keeps a bullish bias while 81,044 holds, targeting a retest of 87,360 by end-October; hot US data are the main threat.
This week: Bias up while 82,290 holds. NFP on 2 Oct is the likely trigger for a break of the 82,533-85,219 range.
End of October: Base case: a retest of 87,360 by 31 Oct. A daily close below the SMA50 at 76,860 would end the uptrend.
Key levels
Resistance
- R184,976.00
- R286,441.00
- R387,360.00
Support
- S182,290.00
- S281,044.00
- S376,860.00
Scenarios
- Trigger
- Soft payrolls and CPI trim Fed hike odds and yields ease
- Target
- 92,546.00
A clean break of 87,360 extends to about 92,546 (last + 4x ATR).
- Trigger
- NFP near the +90k consensus and no CPI shock; the 28 Oct hike is priced, not a surprise
- Target
- 87,360.00
Holds above 81,044 and climbs back to the 87,360 September high.
- Trigger
- Hot US data push yields higher and risk assets sell off
- Target
- 74,932.00
Loss of 81,044 and 78,984 drags price to the 74,932 20-day low.
What drives it
- Up 32.6% in 60 days; averages stacked bullishly
- Tight 82,533-85,219 range since 24 Sep below 87,360
- Fed hikes and 10-year above 5.2% are the headwind
- Trades 24/7, so US data reactions carry into weekends
Dates to watch
US jobs report (NFP), 15:30 MeccaSets Fed-hike odds; a miss would help risk assets, a strong print would pressure them.
US CPI (September)Another energy-driven hot print would lift yields, the main drag on Bitcoin.
FOMC decisionA priced 25bp hike is manageable; hawkish guidance for more would test 81,044.
Technical picture
Above SMA20 (81,044), SMA50 (76,860) and SMA100 (70,110). RSI 60 is firm but not stretched. ATR14 2,281 (2.73%), so daily swings of about $2,300 are normal.
What would change our view
A daily close below the SMA20 at 81,044, most likely after a hot NFP or CPI that lifts yields further, would put 76,860 in play and void the call.