AUD/USD fell 0.52% on the day the RBA hiked to 4.60%, a sign that the Fed's hike cycle and a US 10-year yield above 5.2% still dominate. TNFX Research expects rallies to fade below the weekly pivot at 0.70488, targeting 0.69217, with the 0.69059 60-day low next if US data stay firm.
This week: Heavy below 0.70488. NFP on 2 Oct decides whether the 0.69185 band low is tested; bounces from near-oversold levels should stall near 0.70208.
End of October: Base case: end October near 0.69217. A daily close back above the SMA50 at 0.70914 would void the bearish call.
Key levels
Resistance
- R10.70208
- R20.70488
- R30.70914
Support
- S10.69653
- S20.69217
- S30.69059
Scenarios
- Trigger
- Payrolls near the +35k low end of forecasts and softer CPI trim Fed hike odds
- Target
- 0.70914
Near-oversold RSI fuels a squeeze through 0.70488 back to the SMA50 at 0.70914.
- Trigger
- NFP near the +90k consensus and firm CPI keep a 28 Oct Fed hike priced
- Target
- 0.69217
Rallies stall below 0.70488 and the pair grinds down to the 0.69217 swing low.
- Trigger
- Payrolls above +180k or CPI above August's 3.4% push yields higher
- Target
- 0.68647
A break of the 0.69059 60-day low opens the 0.68647 period low.
What drives it
- RBA hiked to 4.60% on 29 Sep, yet AUD/USD fell 0.52%
- Markets price ~70-77% odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct
- US 10-year above 5.2%, highest since June 2007
- Energy-led inflation (Brent ~$106) keeps the Fed hawkish
- RSI 30.1: bounces likely, but capped below 0.70488
Dates to watch
US jobs report (NFP), 15:30 MeccaThe only payrolls print before the FOMC; the +90k consensus sets the Fed-hike odds that drive the US dollar.
US CPI (September)August CPI was 3.4% y/y; another hot print would cement an October hike.
FOMC decisionA second 25bp hike is priced at ~70-77%; a hawkish outcome widens the dollar's appeal.
RBA decisionAfter four hikes in 2026, the RBA's guidance decides whether AUD gets any rate support.
Technical picture
Below SMA20 (0.71214) and SMA50 (0.70914) after a 1.87% five-day drop to a 0.69653 20-day low. RSI 30.1 is near oversold, so bounces are likely. ATR14 0.00451 (0.65%).
What would change our view
A daily close back above the SMA50 at 0.70914, most likely on a payrolls miss or a soft CPI, would invalidate the bearish view.